Economic outlook still suppressing the public’s
mood
London, December 13th, 2024 – Long-running Consumer Confidence Index increased by one point to -17 in December. Two measures were up and three were unchanged in comparison to last month’s announcement.
Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights Director, NIQ GfK, says:
“In December, consumers adopted the holding pattern we’ve seen for much of 2024, with the one-point increase in the overall Index to -17 very close to the 2024 average of -18. Consumer confidence is still far from strong but there is some room for optimism with views on personal finances over the next 12 months up two points versus November and creeping back into positive territory (at +1). This echoes the encouraging positive scores we saw in this measure from March to August. However, with the major purchase measure unchanged at -16 in December, consumers are still thinking twice about big-ticket purchases and whether they will bring Christmas cheer. Significantly, views on the economy are unchanged from November (-39 over the last 12 months; -26 for the next 12 months) which suggests people don’t know where we are going. We will need to see robust improvements in these perceptions of the economy before we can start talking about sustained improvements in the consumer mood. In a nutshell, it’s the continuing uncharitable view on the UK’s general economic situation that’s suppressing consumer confidence.”
UK Consumer Confidence Measures – December 2024
The Overall Index Score increased by one point to -17 in December. Two measures were up and three were unchanged in comparison to last month’s announcement.
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year is up two points at -7; this is seven points better than December 2023.
The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months is up two points at +1, which is three points higher than this time last year.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is the same as last month at -39; this is five points higher than in December 2023.
Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months are unchanged at -26; this is one point worse than December 2023.
Major Purchase Index
The Major Purchase Index is also unchanged at -16; this is seven points higher than this month last year.
Savings Index
The Savings Index has dropped a further three points to +21; this is six points lower than this time last year.
Summary of Consumer Confidence in 2024
Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights Director, NIQ GfK, says: “Overall, 2024 has been another year of ups and downs in consumer confidence but much less so compared with recent years. In 2024, there was an eight-point difference between the highest and lowest score. In 2023, it was a difference of 23 points, and in 2022 it was 30 points. So volatility is down but will it stay that way?
Of all the major events in 2024, the UK General Election was the most impactful, with initial post-election optimism giving way to a large seven-point fall in September as consumers were spooked by Government messages about the state of the economy and difficult choices to be made.
Looking at the consumer’s willingness to spend, Black Friday 2024 delivered a vital boost to retailers. Figures from GfK’s point-of-sale data reveal a strong Black Friday sales performance with sales of technology and durables, homeware, and seasonal products up 1.8% in value and 7.7% in volume overall versus Black Friday 2023. Turnover in Black Friday week hit £992 million, a figure that’s 110% better than the average week in 2024.”
About the survey
- The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK.
- This month’s survey was conducted among a sample of 2,015 individuals aged 16+ in the UK.
- Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
- Interviewing was conducted between November 28th and December 9th.
- The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
- The Overall Index Score is calculated using underlying data that runs to two decimal points.
- Press release dates for 2025 are: January 24th;February 21st; March 21st; April 25th; May 23rd; June 20th; July 25th; August 22nd; September 19th; October 24th; November 21st; December 19th.
- Any published material requires a reference to GfK e.g., ‘Research carried out by GfK.’
- This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 2006.
- The table below is an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:
| Personal Financial Situation (Q1/Q2) | This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse) |
| General Economic Situation (Q3/Q4) | This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse) |
| Major Purchase Index (Q8) | This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods?’ (right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time) |
| Savings Index (Q10) | This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?’ (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save) (Commented on but not included in the Index Score) |
About the GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM
There is no other consumer research project with the longevity, rigor, and reliability of GfK’s Consumer Confidence Barometer (CCB). Each month since January 1974, it has provided a snapshot of how UK consumers feel about the crucial economic topics today and their outlook for the next 12 months. It has provided insight into the UK’s thinking through boom and bust, the Brexit vote, and most recently the coronavirus pandemic. Since October 2023, GfK has been cooperating with the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), GfK’s not-for-profit founder, on the Consumer Confidence Barometer. The aim of the cooperation is to provide even more in-depth analysis of the reasons behind shifts in consumer confidence. GfK’s high-quality survey methodology and rigorous processes have not changed so there is no impact on the CCB dataset and trends. This is the background to the sourcing in the release, ‘GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM’.
About GfK
For over 89 years, we have earned the trust of our clients around the world by solving critical questions in their decision-making process. We fuel their growth by providing a complete understanding of their consumers’ buying behavior, and the dynamics impacting their markets, brands and media trends. In 2023, GfK combined with NIQ, bringing together two industry leaders with unparalleled global reach. With a holistic retail read and the most comprehensive consumer insights – delivered with advanced analytics through state-of-the-art platforms – GfK drives “Growth from Knowledge”.
About NIM
The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) is a non-profit research institute at the interface of academia and practice. NIM examines how consumer decisions change due to new technology, societal trends or the application of behavioral science, and what the resulting micro- and macroeconomic impacts are for the market and for society as a whole. A better understanding of consumer decisions and their impacts helps society, businesses, politics, and consumers make better decisions with regard to “prosperity for all” in the sense of the social-ecological market system. The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions is the founder of GfK. For more information, visit www.nim.org/en
