The Gardening and Home Improvement sector tracked by GfK is experiencing a period of growth stabilization in 2024. Four years on from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, where people spent significantly more time at home, consumers’ priorities have shifted, and economic indicators are improving. Coupled with some key trends that are shaping the market, this provides the landscape for growth over the coming 12 months.  

Consumers’ reallocation of time and spending 

As consumers work and study from home more than in the past, the home and garden have become a place of retreat and identity. However, spend on out-of-home activities is on the rise and, as inflation starts to subside, holidays are moving up the priority list. Globally nearly one in five consumers plan to spend more on holidays abroad this year, according to NielsenIQ’s Consumer Outlook 2024 study.  

Spending time and money on the home is still important to people, but not at the frequency it was a few years ago. In 2021, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, 36% of people said they spent time every week on home maintenance or improvement. Today that figure has dropped to 33%, with people instead moving to monthly maintenance (up from 28% in 2021 to 31% today). 

Behavioral shifts are also occurring in the scale of home improvement projects. During lockdowns, big renovations were common. Over the last few years, however, Europe’s housing markets have been impacted by high raw materials costs, rising interest rates and historically low levels of consumer confidence. This, added to the distraction of increasing out-of-home spending, has meant people’s focus has shifted to smaller, faster home projects, upgrades, and repairs. 

Garden and home improvement revenue is stabilizing 

High inflation in 2022 pushed up prices, and therefore also revenue, for many Gardening and Home Improvement categories, while volume remained in decline. During the first four months of 2024, however, sales revenue stands at +3% vs. the same period last year and, even more encouragingly, volume is also returning to growth in 2024.  

The categories driving this growth are gardening, home care, food equipment and ironmongery (door locks), as well as hot water heating. Those categories exposed to longer replacement cycles, and bigger projects — such as taps, shower components, emulsion paints and LED lighting — are declining again this year. However, sealants, DIY adhesives and power tools are experiencing slight growth as consumers turn to smaller DIY projects and DIY repairs. 

Key category trends within Gardening and Home Improvement 

Consumer demand for convenience remains a key purchase driver across both the Gardening and the Home Improvement sectors.  

• In Gardening, revenue from sales of cordless powered gardening tools is up 23% so far this year (January to April 2024), compared to 12% for the powered gardening tools category overall. And sales value of smart app-controlled water timers is up 47%, compared to -2% for the water timer category overall. 

• In Home Improvement, ready-mixed equalizing plaster saw revenue grow 10% in January to April compared to last year, while other variants only grew 7%. Voice-controlled LED lighting, meanwhile, held steady at 0% revenue growth, compared to the -5% drop seen by non-voice-controlled LED lighting.  

The convenience of online shopping is revolutionizing specific segments within the Gardening and Home Improvement market. Between January and April, online sales across the sector grew 16% compared to last year, primarily driven by tools, machines and workwear.  

Environmentally friendly choices are also a noticeable trend. Watering/cleaning products and chemicals experienced an increase in sales of high-priced products in January to April this year, thanks to consumers’ willingness to pay more for eco-friendly products in these key areas.  

Brand reputation is proving key in categories such as DIY adhesive tapes and paints, where consumers want to get the job or project done right the first time. For the start of this year, trade brands have lost out to higher end brands in these categories.  

Overall, the products outperforming across Gardening and Home Improvement are eco-friendly, convenient, easy to use and automate tasks to save the user time.  

Immediate and long-term outlook 

The year ahead promises to see continuing opportunities for the Gardening and Home Improvement industry. Consumer demand is increasing in key areas, with a focus on smaller home improvement projects and an ongoing preference for products that provide convenience, time savings, ease of use and versatility.  

In the long-term, demand will remain strong, with the focus increasingly shifting to sustainable homes, buildings, gardens, and materials. This is fueled by consumers’ own core values as well as EU legislation for zero-emission new buildings from 2028, plus new initiatives linked to the EU Green Deal. This combination of personal drivers and government legislation will heavily impact the way consumers purchase and consume products, creating opportunities for DIY retailers and brands to expand their offerings and portfolios.