2023 Market Disruption: A regional response to a global polycrisis

With every sector reeling from the effects of global and local crises, it is unsurprising that LATAM countries are having short-term social and economic issues. 

However, it’s not all doom and gloom, as there are clear signs for optimism and growth opportunities amidst all the challenges. 

LATAM is experiencing lower unemployment rates than previous years, fostering economic growth and stability. According to the International Labour Organization, the estimated average regional unemployment rate for LATAM and the Caribbean at the end of 2022 is lower than it was in 2019 — dropping 0.8 points from 8% to 7.2%. Brazil, for example, has the highest level of labor occupation in the last 5 years. Despite many of the referred occupations being informal work, it’s still a positive sign that the economy is set back in motion after the COVID-19 slump.

Favorable exchange rates are attracting importers, while a growing middle class drives demand for diverse products. Increased online connectivity leads to a higher need for tech and smart home devices, further expanding market potential. And from a cultural perspective, LATAM consumers have consistently demonstrated an impressive resilience to inflation and an ability to purchase goods, even in hard times.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the issues at hand and how LATAM has responded. 

The rise of the ‘phygital’ customer journey

As retailers around the world closed their doors during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, LATAM consumers turned to e-commerce out of necessity. In 2019, just 24% of T&D purchases were made online. By 2022, this had risen to 46% – and is predicted to remain at this level for 2023. In Brazil, LATAM’s strongest economy, online sales grew +8%, rising from 16% in 2019 to 24% in 2022. 

In fact, the combined phygital and online purchase journey currently triggers 75% of the total T&D purchase journeys in Brazil. So, for Brazilian manufacturers and retailers at least, an online profile is mandatory to communicating and initiating interactions with potential buyers. 

GfK’s Commercial Director Brazil, Henrique Mascarenhas, explains.

The pandemic meant Brazilian consumers were forced to overcome their fear of e-commerce and start buying online. Online sales remain strong in 2023 – but with a different customer journey. As the most digitized country in the region, this serves as a good benchmark for LATAM strategic planning.

The ‘physical versus digital’ war is a thing of the past. What we are seeing now is a much more complex customer journey, with multiple touchpoints across offline and digital for a single purchase. Indeed, the journey itself has now become more relevant than traditional channel segmentation.”

Henrique Mascarenhas, Commercial Director Brazil, GfK

For example, a customer with a broken smartphone needs one right now. They will research pricing and availability online and then buy from a physical store to get the product on the same day. Someone looking to upgrade from a 4G to a 5G model, on the other hand, will take more time to research different makes and models, product features, pricing, service availability and so on. They may use a combination of digital and offline channels to do this and could end up buying online or in-store.”

Henrique Mascarenhas, Commercial Director Brazil, GfK

Retailers and T&D manufacturers need to understand and adapt to these new types of omnichannel buying journeys to provide a high quality, low/no friction customer experience at every touchpoint. The purchase journey is about more than just the channels, and the pandemic has shown us that. As more people started using digital options, the control over the buying process shifted from retailers to the customers themselves.”

Henrique Mascarenhas, Commercial Director Brazil, GfK

The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war

The economic shockwaves of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have significantly impacted LATAM. Supply chains in food, fertilizer and energy markets have been disrupted. The effects vary by nation, depending on whether countries are net importers or exporters of affected products, and on varying levels of social inequality and financial volatility.

Some LATAM countries have benefited from the war, for example by filling the export gap left by Russian and Ukrainian wheat and corn, which previously accounted for 30% of the world’s product. New markets have opened up for Brazil and Argentina, which now export wheat to Morocco and Algeria respectively.

In contrast, some energy and food importers in LATAM are experiencing a negative net income effect as a result of the increase in commodity prices. For example, energy-exporting nations such as Venezuela, Colombia and Bolivia have benefited from the increase in oil, gas and coal prices. But as these countries are also importers of derivatives, the positive impacts are being reduced or canceled out completely.

To operate successfully in the current climate, retailers and T&D manufacturers must build resilience with agile strategies and teams that quickly deploy localized responses to both regional and country-specific challenges. The key lies in finding new ways to impact the market and consumer spending, whilst anticipating future geopolitical and socio-economic disruptions that may affect the market in unexpected ways.

A unique response to inflation

Inflation levels are hurting consumer wallets the world over and LATAM is no exception. But there is one big difference: they are inured to inflation more than any other region due to repeated exposure over the last few decades. In the 1980s, Brazil saw inflation levels reach 2% per day and there have been several other crises since.

“On the surface, LATAM consumers react to inflation like everyone else: they tighten their belts. They buy cheaper brands, use less energy and try to find other ways to save and make money. The difference is the speed with which they make these changes – they are used to inflation and have learned how to face it. Because of this, they react much faster than consumers in other regions.”

Henrique Mascarenhas, Commercial Director Brazil, GfK

Retailers have also reacted quickly to the latest crisis. Responding to reduced disposable income levels, flexible payment options are becoming more widely available for higher-ticket T&D items such as cookers, refrigerators, washing machines, smartphones and PCs. With a single purchase often accounting for an entire month’s salary or more, these are proving very popular.

“Increasing the available payment options is a ‘must’ for T&D retailers. To do this effectively, retailers must understand the financial challenges their target markets are facing. What is their average monthly disposable income and how much of this can they afford to spend on finance payments? How many months’ credit do they need: 12, 24, 36 or more? it is important to think in terms of what fits the consumer’s budget rather than the total price of the product.”

Felipe Mendes, Managing Director Latin America, GfK

For the region’s poorest consumers, it is worth noting that their willingness to take risks is dictated by the mood within the economic marketplace, as well as any credit or finance deals that are available.

“We talked earlier about pent-up demand for T&D products in LATAM. This means that consumers do not only want to buy; they need to do so because items need replacing. However, the poorest segments of our society are constrained not only by their general financial situation, but by the ever-changing micro-economic conditions that dictate levels of demand. T&D retailers must keep their fingers on the economic button in their target markets so they can exploit windows of opportunity as they open up.”

Fernando Baialuna, Head of gfkconsult Latin America, GfK

The LATAM consumer in 2023

A growing need for trust

Consumer optimism in LATAM is low compared to the rest of the world. On top of the various elements of the polycrisis, this has been exacerbated by the ongoing political instabilities within many LATAM countries. With constant leadership changes between right and left, and a sharp divide between nations supporting opposing sides in the Russia-Ukraine war, consumer confidence levels have plummeted.

When consumers are less confident, they are likely to buy less, especially when it comes to consumer technical goods. Further, with less credit available in the market, they suffer under less favorable loan repayment conditions. Consumers therefore tend to postpone certain purchases — reflected in the higher level of pent-up demand in recent years. Overall, consumers are on edge about their current socio-economic context, and what the future may bring. While data from the March 2023 FGV Consumer Confidence Index confirms that confidence levels are recovering which can stimulate future purchases, consumers also need to feel trust in a brand before they are ready to buy.

For well-established brands, trust often already exists and can be built on. Creating trust from scratch can be difficult for new entrants to a region or category – but it is possible, says Henrique Mascarenhas.

“Trust begins with your target consumers. You need to understand who you are targeting and what matters to them. Whist this will vary by audience and market segment, most consumers, especially the younger generations, want brands that are ‘real’. You need to be genuine and honest – and you need to walk the talk. For example, if your company has said on social media that you are taking steps to help customers through the recession, you must fulfil these promises.

We saw after the 2015/16 recession that FMCG brands that did not keep their word in this respect lost market share. The same principle will apply to T&D brands: if consumers feel a company has betrayed them by not sticking to its stance on climate change, or working conditions, or the war in Ukraine, they won’t buy from them again.

So, whatever your brand voice and messaging might be, make sure they are relevant to and resonate with your target audience – and don’t let them down!”

Henrique Mascarenhas, Commercial Director Brazil, GfK

How consumers search for information has changed

Since 2019, there has been a change in LATAM in how consumers search for product information online, especially amongst the 25 to 46 age group. According to gfknewron consumer intelligence, brands and product features have increased in importance (+3 to 4pp) whilst promotions have become less attractive (-5 to 6pp). Consumers are taking a more educated approach to the purchasing process, especially how they use social media. 

One notable trend is a rise in the number of searches for product images and hashtags. Another is the growing interest in influencers. What is interesting about the latter is that it tends to be nano influencers (1k to 10k followers), rather than those with huge follower numbers, that are proving to be the most popular. 

Things are simpler in LATAM than in other regions,” explains Felipe Mendes. “We generally have lower income and education levels, so the questions we have about new T&D products are also simpler. Rather than just seeing a famous influencer wearing or using the latest tech, we want to know why they have chosen that product. How are they using it? Where can the consumer buy it? How much does it cost? It is these ‘nuts and bolts’ questions that make this part of the buying journey very different from elsewhere in the world.”

Felipe Mendes, Managing Director Latin America, GfK

For T&D manufacturers and retailers, this means really getting under the skin of their target audience and pinpointing exactly what they want and need to know about their products and brands. Coming back to the ‘phygital’ journey we explored earlier, it also necessitates understanding every target group specific online and offline touchpoint of the customer journey and positioning brands and products correctly at every stage.

Identifying the right channels is just the beginning of an increasingly complex process, as Henrique Mascarenhas explains:

“Consumers go to marketplaces not only to buy, but also to understand the products and why others are talking about them.

First, to position themselves in a crowded landscape, brands must correctly identify which kind of consumer, and which kind of needs, they will address: placing the consumer at the center. Then, this influences which products to deliver, and how and where to communicate.”

Henrique Mascarenhas, Commercial Director Brazil, GfK

“While this has been the foundation of all marketing efforts, the complexity of the media landscape and consumer needs and behaviors have increased — necessitating changes in how we address them. Today, marketers need to focus on the journey, not the channel, and they need to be available ‘everywhere’ for their target consumer. This means having to make data-informed choices that focuses efforts on the right consumer profile, at the right time and through the right channels.

Everything begins with a deep understanding of consumers and their needs, then determining how these can be addressed for maximum returns and sustainable growth.”

Henrique Mascarenhas, Commercial Director Brazil, GfK

Brand perception is key

Although less prominent than globally, the relative importance of experiences versus possessions is still high across all generations in Brazil, as can be seen in the image below. 

There is also a growing awareness of, and intolerance to, social inequality amongst the younger age groups in LATAM. This has led some consumers to reject US and other Western T&D brands as part of a wider rejection of capitalism. 

However, at the same time there is a growth opportunity amongst consumer segments, for example, whose brand perceptions are heavily influenced by nostalgia and a feeling that ‘things were better before.’ This could be advantageous for well-established T&D brands – including US and Western companies – which Gen Z and Millennial consumers have grown up with, and therefore trust.

“Evoking a sense of nostalgia could be a win-win for T&D brands in 2023. Now is the time to tell stories and showcase experiences about brands that make consumers feel safe and comfortable. Gen Z and Millennial consumers in particular want to hear beautiful stories about brands, both because of nostalgia and because they are changing their values to become less materialistic.

Looking back to the ‘good old days’ is a tactic used to great effect by left-wing political parties in LATAM, who talk about how much more you could buy for your money in the past when they were in power. The same principle can be applied to T&D businesses. Picking the right influencers to represent their brands and reflect consumer moods ‘in the moment’ could be a powerful tactic for T&D this year.”

Felipe Mendes, Managing Director Latin America, GfK

Opportunities for established players in LATAM

The immediate future for the region’s economy might look bleak, but there are signs that recovery could be around the corner. Salaries are still below pre-COVID levels, but unemployment has fallen from 8% in 2019 to 7.2% in 2022. Exchange rates are currently favorable for importers, whilst a growing middle class will ultimately provide good opportunities for growth in the longer-term.

And if, as predicted by the IMF, inflation continues to ease and GDP to rise as we move into 2024, consumer spending power could soon start to increase.

Here are three key action points for established T&D retailers and manufacturers looking to take maximum advantage of growth opportunities in LATAM in 2023 and beyond.

Invest in promoting the product renewal cycle

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated consumer buying behaviors by five to 10 years. This includes the uptake of new technologies, with many LATAM households investing in devices such as laptops, tablets, smartphones and games consoles to keep in touch and keep themselves occupied. Others took the opportunity to buy new cooking appliances and kitchen gadgets, as eating out was prohibited during lockdown.

Three years later, many consumers are getting ready to upgrade or replace these devices. However, consumers are constrained by their own financial circumstances and wider micro-economic conditions, which is lengthening the ‘traditional’ three-year renewal cycle and disrupting typical sales patterns. This has led to the ‘pent-up’ demand referenced earlier.

To unlock and maintain these replacement sales, retailers and manufacturers alike must invest in promoting their products effectively in order to influence and persuade consumers to purchase. 

“In 2023, we see the start of a renewals cycle for the products purchased in the last 3 years. We can expect approximately 50% of sales to be renewals, and another 30% to be a second product or an upgrade. By all accounts, this is the time for brands to influence consumption.

It may feel counterintuitive in the downturn, but it’s critical for brands and retailers to invest in promoting their products. While 2021 and 2022 were hard years, the industry tendency can be to wait and be cautious. But if brands don’t invest now, consumers looking for advice on changing products won’t have them top of mind when they’re ready to spend.”

Felipe Mendes, Managing Director Latin America, GfK

Jump on market gaps as new technologies emerge

LATAM has traditionally been one of the slower regions to adopt new technologies as they enter the marketplace. E.g., whilst smartphone penetration is roughly on a par with other parts of the world (69% in H1 2021), 5G technology is less widely available than elsewhere and is expected to represent just 44% of mobile subscriptions by the end of 2027, compared to 82% in Western Europe.

However, as connectivity becomes increasingly available and consumers become more interested in (and reliant on) technology, the opportunity for known and trusted T&D brands across impacted categories could be huge.

The Smart Home is a great example. Previously, there weren’t enough devices available to make the Smart Home appealing to LATAM consumers. However, more products are now coming onto the market, which could lead to an explosion of sales in this category – and T&D brands should be prepared for this.

To successfully overcome historic category barriers such as lack of awareness, high costs and concerns about data privacy, T&D brands will need to employ the right tactics. Manufacturers should focus on smart pricing strategies (targeted by segment / income level) and promoting the security features of their products, whilst retailers should push sales on all relevant channels and offer a range of payment options to include finance.

Tap into growing awareness of ESG, whilst keeping cost in mind

Environmental and social governance (ESG) is becoming increasingly prominent in LATAM (although still less so than in other regions) as consumers become more aware of the social and economic effects of climate change. A company’s environmental impact is now of much greater interest to the consumer than in the past and has a growing influence on purchasing behavior. 

However, whilst many consumers would like to take positive action such as buying recycled products, or recycling more themselves, they often cannot afford to do so. As a result, it is circularity – the minimization of waste and maximization of reuse – that is the main ESG driver for LATAM consumers right now.

This is a great opportunity for T&D companies and one that could work especially well for new brands eager to promote their commitment to ESG. The key is to create services and marketing messages that aim to save the consumer money, time or effort as well as benefiting the planet. In its simplest form, this could be a smartphone brand offering trade-ins for old models when the customer buys a new one. The customer gets a small payment for their old handset, which is then reused or recycled instead of going to landfill.

However, there is a great deal of mileage – both in terms of increasing market share and growing trust – in going further to help the consumer whilst benefiting the environment. 

3 keys for new players in the market

LATAM consumers love their brands and tend to remain loyal, so new entrants may find it hard to take on the incumbents. Here are three ‘must do’ actions for emerging T&D manufacturers to maximize their chances of success.

Don’t ‘copy and paste’ product portfolios

There is certainly room for new T&D  brands in most of LATAM, especially Brazil. But manufacturers must avoid the mistake of thinking their existing product ranges can be copied and pasted into new marketplaces in the region. LATAM is different from other regions in many ways – and its culture, history and tastes (both as a whole and in terms of individual countries) must be accounted for.

“Local T&D brands, especially in the SDA and MDA categories, always modify their products for individual markets within LATAM. Sometimes the changes are small; in other cases, the whole look and feel, design and usability needs to be altered. Manufacturers need to understand which products will translate well and which will not. This is where the localized data and consumer / market insights provided by GfK can prove invaluable.”

Henrique Mascarenhas, Commercial Director Brazil, GfK

Promote ethics and equality – but with care

We have noted the increasing consumer demand, especially amongst the younger age groups, for honesty and authenticity in a brand’s marketing messages. Issues such as sustainability and social equality are especially hot topics in LATAM. 

However, feelings around such areas can be very different to those in other regions of the world, with consumers often taking a ‘black or white’ approach to topics like gender identity. T&D brands looking to grow trust by aligning themselves with such issues are therefore advised to tread carefully. In other words: choose your battles wisely!

“Inequality is the critical point in LATAM, so the best reactions tend to be towards brands which take a clear position on social and ethical issues. This is mainly the case for FMCG and T&D brands targeting younger age groups such as Gen Z, who tend to feel the strongest connections with topical positioning.

It is crucial for companies that adopt these tactics to sustain their values and positions consistently, whilst showing their commitment to reducing equality within their chosen topic. If a new company takes a certain political or social stance, consumers will expect to see them proactively working with affinity groups, for example, by leading the process of educating people about issues affecting the groups and developing actions to address them.”

Fernando Baialuna, Head of gfkconsult Latin America, GfK

“So, for T&D brands, especially start-ups, there is a chance to gain traction and create trust by focusing on marketing activities that promote social equality. However, this must be approached with care; brand trust is a fragile thing, especially amongst Gen Z and Millennial consumers, and a single wrong move or hint of scandal can wipe out years of hard work in an instant.”

Fernando Baialuna, Head of gfkconsult Latin America, GfK

Explore strategic national and regional partnerships

As we have seen, building trust is a challenge for new T&D manufacturers entering the LATAM region. One way to get around this is to forge strategic partnerships with national and regional retailers that are already well-known and trusted. For example, introducing product ranges as concessions (‘store-in-store’), both online and in physical stores.

Leveraging the advertising and marketing power – and the brand awareness levels – of established retailers can help new brands get a foothold in their chosen categories much more quickly and successfully on both a national and regional level than, for example, simply launching a new e-commerce website.

However, it is important that these partnerships be managed effectively for both parties to gain maximum benefit. The focus needs to be on building trust and providing great customer service. One leading domestic appliance brand has successfully achieved this by actively working to support its regional partners, such as prioritizing their inventory deliveries when there were supply chain issues. As a result, product sales have increased in regional retailers.

Expert insights and strategic direction to master LATAM T&D market

Watch these expert videos and uncover the expected consumer and sales trends in Latin America for 2023 and beyond, know which strategies are crucial for success as a new market entrant or established regional player. Our experts share their data-backed insights on the region’s economic outlook, and how you can maximize your success in context.   

Top 3 must-knows for 2023

A summary of what T&D manufacturers and retailers need to do to stay ahead of the curve in the LATAM region to engage with target consumer groups and grow market share.

Think globally, act locally

LATAM is a complex and fast-changing region. Incomes, education levels, access to technologies such as 5G and other socioeconomic factors vary widely across the 21 countries, 10 regions and around 690 million residents. Staying customer-centric is, as always, essential, but how can this be achieved in the face of such disparity?

Faced with these never-ending variations, a ‘Think globally, act locally’ ethos is more important for new and established T&D brands in LATAM than anywhere else on earth. Pricing, product assortment, design and promotional activities must all be adjusted to meet national and regional needs, budgets and tastes, not to mention the ever-evolving customer journey. Effective market segmentation strategy and 360o decision-making, supported by granular data and local market and consumer insights, is indispensable.

Play smart with consumer and market segments

There are always opportunities to be leveraged in LATAM. By identifying market gaps, such as the affordable premium sector for the middle class, and plugging them with the right promotional strategies – e.g., tactical pricing and flexible payment options – T&D manufacturers and retailers can enjoy success in 2023.

Once again, understanding differences whilst applying integrated thinking is critical. Segments such as affordable premium, or sales channels like social media, cannot be treated as isolated silos. The right strategy and tactics will be different for every company, brand and LATAM country. But without understanding regional and national cultural, historic and social differences in the first instance, it will be hard for brands to grow.

Generate market traction by building trust

The importance of trust has already been stated multiple times, but perhaps cannot be overstated! Even established and much-loved brands cannot rest on their laurels in LATAM. Consumers need to see T&D manufacturers and retailers widely advertising and promoting their products if they are to keep them top of mind and buy, not save.

That means telling stories about brands that resonate with consumers’ wants, needs and values – just like in 2020 when everything went online. The difference now is that T&D brands live in an omnichannel world and must reach out to consumers in the right place, at the right time and in the right way to generate and maintain traction. 

About gfkconsult

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