High tariffs haven’t been a major concern for American brands, retailers, and consumers since the 1930s, when average tariff rates on imports into the United States were around 20%. It’s true that, during his first term, President Donald J. Trump enacted substantially more tariffs than American businesses had experienced in decades. Under President Joe Biden, tariffs remained higher than those in recent history. However, the overall average tariff was still relatively low in historic terms—and this remains true today, at 2.5%.
In general, world governments have been moving toward making trade easier over the last several decades. The word “tariff” was rarely heard on the campaign trail after World War II.
But under the incoming presidential administration, that may soon change.
Business leaders, supply chain managers, and consumers must now consider the possibility of a high tariff policy in a way that they haven’t for decades. But without clear proposals in place, where should they begin?
In our forthcoming report, Yale economists Martha Gimbel and Ernie Tedeschi will delve into NIQ data, other historical data, and past trade restrictions to help businesses prepare for what’s next.
They will address these key questions:
- How likely is it that high tariffs will be implemented?
- Which product categories will be affected?
- How can business leaders hedge their bets?
- Who is positioned to succeed in the face of new tariffs?
- What’s being proposed—and what are the possible consequences?
- Which product categories will be affected?
Don’t miss out on this exclusive analysis.
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Also coming soon: a video conversation with the economists about key tariff scenarios, market volatility, potential supply chain risks, and more.
Authors
Martha Gimbel is Executive Director at The Budget Lab at Yale.
Ernie Tedeschi is Director of Economics at The Budget Lab at Yale.
Looking for more economist insights?
Check out Tedeschi’s analysis of shifting consumer mindsets and commentary on the potential economic impact of the 2024 U.S. presidential race.
