Amstelveen – September 5, 2024 – The European Soccer Championship influenced both the Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) as well as the Tech and Durables (T&D) market in the Netherlands. Especially larger Technical Consumer Goods (TCG) as well as typical snacks were much more in demand, meeting retailers’ expectations for the Summer of Sports. However, the rainy weather led to a noticeable decline in demand for other product categories such as gardening supplies. How the FMCG and T&D sectors developed overall and what experts from NIQ and GfK predict for the second half of the year is detailed in this edition of the NIQ Retail Spend Barometer. It combines data from NIQ and GfK to provide the most comprehensive insights possible into market potential and developments in FMCG and T&D markets.
In general, the period from May to June 2024 was characterized by retailers’ promotional activities around the European Championship. For TCG, this led to a market recovery during the last weeks of Q2 2024, resulting in a turnover increase of 2.3 percent for Q2 as a whole, driven in particular by TVs (15 percent more units sold) and video projectors (95 percent more units sold), but also less-to-be-expected products such as deep fryers (15,5 percent more units sold), all compared to the same period last year. For FMCG, typical snack categories such as chips or Bitterballen/Minis (which can be prepared in a deep fryer) were in high demand.
The Dutch market reflects the rainy summer
The second quarter of 2024 was very cold and rainy compared to the same period in 2023, which was characterized by several heat waves. For example, compared to 2023, the turnover of ventilators and air conditioning fell by 44 percent. In the DIY & Home Improvement market, which includes gardening supplies, the weather led to a turnover decline of 4 percent compared to Q2 2023. This decrease was driven by product categories such as Outdoor BBQs (15 percent less units sold) as well as garden handsticks (15 percent less units sold) and sprayers (10 percent less units sold). Even in the fashion market, the rainy weather is reflected: Due to the bad weather, consumers in the Netherlands bought less new summer clothes, resulting in a turnover decline of 2.7 percent.
FMCG categories typical for the early summer months also lagged in comparison to the hot early summer of 2023: In Q2 2024, the sales of ice cream decreased by 6 percent; while suncare products such as sunscreen, sun spray or after sun care products decreased by 18.9 percent in the same period. This reflects that despite the long-term effects of climate change, which might extend the sales period for these products, the weather still has a very tangible impact on sales.
T&D: Better than expected, but still below Q2 2023
The T&D market is 1.1 percent below the second quarter of 2023, with several notable developments within the market. On the one hand, Technical Consumer Goods exceeded expectations with a 2.3 percent increase in turnover due to an increased demand for consumer electronics driven by the European Soccer Championship. Home appliances also developed as positive as retailers had expected for Q2 with a 4.8 percent increase in turnover, driven especially by small domestic appliances. The annual holiday payout in May might have had an effect in supporting consumers with making larger purchases, such as a new TV or a new fridge. On the other hand, DIY and home improvement with a 4 percent decrease in turnover and other categories such as fashion suffered from seasonal effects such as the rainy weather.
FMCG: Volume still declining, but to a lesser extent – tobacco legislation acutely influencing the market
The overall numbers for the FMCG market show a total negative growth rate of 0.2 percent for the second quarter of 2024. However, the new legislation banning tobacco products from supermarkets from July 2024 onwards has already led several supermarkets to reduce the amount of tobacco in their assortments. Excluding tobacco products, the Dutch FMCG market shows a growth rate of 1.8 percent compared to Q2 2023. At the same time, a much larger drop in tobacco products sales in supermarkets is expected for the second half of the year, when the legislation will officially be in place.
In general, there is a trend towards volume decline and higher prices driven by inflation, although the developments are less extreme than in previous years. Some products that buck the trend and register volume growth include confectionery within the snacks segment, which as a whole shows positive volume as well as value growth, driven by chocolate and other confectionery items. Additionally, the dairy segment, despite a decline in value, is experiencing volume growth, with some products within the segment even showing a lower average price in Q2 compared to the previous year.
Market developments are getting more diverse, with promotion strategy as a huge factor for success
Overall, the Dutch market is recovering from several crises in a row: Many categories are still above the level of 2019 (before the larger crises happened), showing that the market is overall developing in a positive way. After the effects of COVID, inflation and the Russian attack on Ukraine, developments of price and sales units are becoming less extreme; allowing for category-specific trends to be perceived.
“To be successful in such a differentiated market environment, retailers need to consider three factors: Assortment, price and promotion. Especially promotion has become a substantial factor during the last years, since consumers have learned to watch and actively search for promotions when purchasing”, says Jasper Bins, Retail Vertical Director Benelux, NIQ and GfK. “For the second half of 2024, big promotional events like Black Friday will be even more important, since consumers will hold back buying in advance to those well-known events. Retailers will need to participate with interesting offers – but still balance them with other factors, especially the standard price during the rest of the year to protect their margins.”
About the study
The NIQ Retail Spend Barometer examines consumer spending on FMCG and T&D products in Netherlands. It tracks real sales figures and measures changes in past purchase trends. The FMCG categories covered include food, groceries, perishables and near-food, and the T&D categories include technical consumer goods, household appliances, DIY and clothing. The data comes from NielsenIQ and GfK retail market measurement, which together measure the sales of over 350,000 retail partners worldwide.
About GfK
For over 89 years, we have earned the trust of our clients around the world by solving critical questions in their decision-making process. We fuel their growth by providing a complete understanding of their consumers’ buying behavior, and the dynamics impacting their markets, brands and media trends. In 2023, GfK combined with NIQ, bringing together two industry leaders with unparalleled global reach. With a holistic retail read and the most comprehensive consumer insights – delivered with advanced analytics through state-of-the-art platforms – GfK drives “Growth from Knowledge”. For more information, visit www.gfk.com.
About NIQ
NIQ is the world’s leading consumer intelligence company, delivering the most complete understanding of consumer buying behavior and revealing new pathways to growth. In 2023, NIQ combined with GfK, bringing together the two industry leaders with unparalleled global reach. With a holistic retail read and the most comprehensive consumer insights – delivered with advanced analytics through state-of-the-art platforms – NIQ delivers the Full View™.
NIQ, is an Advent International portfolio company with operations in 100+ markets, covering more than 90 percent of the world’s population. For more information, visit www.NIQ.com.
