After April’s cost increases, and with Trump’s tariffs threatening, are we on the verge of a new round of high inflation?
London, April 25th, 2025 – GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index decreased by four points to -23 in April. All measures were down in comparison to last month’s announcement. These are the current findings of the GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer (CCB) powered by NIM. The CCB has been published jointly by GfK and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), the founder of GfK, since October 2023.
Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights Director at GfK, an NIQ Company, says: “Headline confidence is down four points in April, led by two sharp drops in our economic measures. There’s an eight-point fall from -29 to -37 in how people see the wider economy in the coming year, and a five-point dip for the past year’s economic performance. The future indicator on personal finances has also slipped badly, dropping four points to -3. There are good reasons for this downturn. Consumers have not only been grappling with multiple April cost increases in the form of utilities, council tax, stamp duty, and road tax, but they are also hearing dire warnings of renewed high inflation on the back of the Trump Tariffs. The inflation rate eased in March, but are we now on the verge of another round of rapidly increasing prices? If so, consumer confidence is likely to collapse and the broad gains seen since the disastrous September 2022 minibudget, when confidence hit a record low of -49, could quickly be eroded.”
GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM — UK Measures – April 2025
The Overall Index Score decreased by four points to -23 in April. All measures were down in comparison to last month’s announcement.
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year is down one point at -10; this is one point better than April 2024.
The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months is down four points at -3, which is five points worse than this time last year.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is down five points to -47; this is six points worse than in April 2024.
Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months have fallen by eight points to -37; a level that is 16 points worse than April 2024.
Major Purchase Index
The Major Purchase Index is down two points at -19; this is six points better than this month last year.
Savings Index
The Savings Index has recovered five points to reach +30 in April; this is four points better than this time last year.
About the survey
- The data in the GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer (CCB), powered by NIM, is collected by GfK. The CCB has been published jointly by GfK and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), the founder of GfK, since October 2023.
- This month’s survey was conducted among a sample of 2,002 individuals aged 16+ in the UK.
- Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region, and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
- Interviewing was conducted between April 1st and April 14th 2025.
- The figures in the GfK CCB powered by NIM have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
- The Overall Index Score is calculated using underlying data that runs to two decimal points.
- Press release dates for 2025 are: May 23rd; June 20th; July 25th; August 22nd; September 19th; October 24th; November 21st; December 19th.
- Any published material must include a reference to the GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer, e.g. ‘Source: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM’.
- This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 2006.
- The table below is an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:
| Personal Financial Situation (Q1/Q2) | This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse) |
| General Economic Situation (Q3/Q4) | This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse) |
| Major Purchase Index (Q8) | This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods?’ (right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time) |
| Savings Index (Q10) | This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?’ (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save) (Commented on but not included in the Index Score) |
About the GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM
There is no other consumer research project with the longevity, rigor, and reliability of GfK’s Consumer Confidence Barometer (CCB). Each month since January 1974, it has provided a snapshot of how UK consumers feel about the crucial economic topics today and their outlook for the next 12 months. It has provided insight into the UK’s thinking through boom and bust, the Brexit vote, and most recently the coronavirus pandemic. The CCB data collected by GfK has been published jointly with the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) since October 2023. NIM is the founder of GfK.
About NielsenIQ
NielsenIQ (NIQ) is a leading consumer intelligence company, delivering the most complete understanding of consumer buying behavior and revealing new pathways to growth. NIQ combined with GfK in 2023, bringing together two industry leaders with unparalleled global reach. Our global reach spans over 90 countries covering approximately 85% of the world’s population and more than $7.2 trillion in global consumer spend. With a holistic retail read and the most comprehensive consumer insights—delivered with advanced analytics through state-of-the-art platforms—NIQ delivers the Full View™.
For more information, please visit www.niq.com
About GfK – a NielsenIQ company
For over 90 years, we have earned the trust of our clients around the world by solving critical questions in their decision-making process. We fuel their growth by providing a complete understanding of their consumers’ buying behavior, and the dynamics impacting their markets, brands and media trends. In 2023, GfK combined with NIQ, bringing together two industry leaders with unparalleled global reach. With a holistic retail read and the most comprehensive consumer insights – delivered with advanced analytics through state-of-the-art platforms – GfK drives “Growth from Knowledge”. For more information, visit nielseniq.com
About NIM
The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) is a non-profit research institute at the interface of academia and practice. NIM examines how consumer decisions change due to new technology, societal trends or the application of behavioral science, and what the resulting micro- and macroeconomic impacts are for the market and society as a whole. A better understanding of consumer decisions and their impacts helps society, businesses, politics, and consumers make better decisions with regard to “prosperity for all” in the sense of the social-ecological market system. The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions is the founder of GfK. For more information, visit www.nim.org/en and LinkedIn.
