- North America posts 4% YOY growth in units sold
- Low-end smartphones continue to drive market volume growth
- Increases in average selling price partially offset volume decline in the saturated Western Europe market
Global demand for smartphones in 1Q 2016 remained positive, standing at six percent year-on-year. This was helped by continued low-end segment growth in the majority of emerging regions, despite weak economies across the globe. Only China experienced strong growth (up 19 percent year-on-year), driven by increased operator subsidies aimed at spurring 4G adoption.
|
Smartphone sales 1Q 2015 vs. 1Q 2016 |
|
||||||
|
Units sold (in mil.) |
Sales value (in bn. US$) |
||||||
|
1Q15 |
1Q16 |
Y/Y percent change |
1Q15 |
1Q16 |
Y/Y percent change |
||
|
Western Europe |
31.8 |
30.0 |
-6% |
12.5 |
11.9 |
-5% |
|
|
Central & Eastern Europe |
16.9 |
17.1 |
+1% |
3.4 |
3.5 |
+3% |
|
|
North America |
43.5 |
45.4 |
+4% |
17.3 |
18.1 |
+5% |
|
|
Latin America |
27.9 |
24.8 |
-11% |
7.3 |
6.5 |
-11% |
|
|
Middle East & Africa |
39.9 |
42.0 |
+5% |
11.1 |
10.4 |
-6% |
|
|
China |
92.0 |
109.2 |
+19% |
27.3 |
32.1 |
+18% |
|
|
Developed APAC |
19.5 |
18.7 |
-4% |
11.4 |
10.9 |
-4% |
|
|
Emerging APAC |
47.8 |
50.0 |
+5% |
8.2 |
7.9 |
-4% |
|
|
Global |
319.3 |
337.2 |
+6% |
98.5 |
101.3 |
+3% |
|
|
Source: GfK Point of Sales (POS) Measurement data in 90+ markets, May 2016 |
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North America: Aggressive operators drive growth in 1Q
In North America, smartphone demand returned to growth in 1Q 2016, following a dip in the last quarter of 2015. In total, 45.4 million units were sold, down 19 percent quarter-on-quarter and up four percent year-on-year. The rise in demand was helped by aggressive operator marketing and sales efforts.
However, there are signs that this will not continue at the same level because of the cost. In addition, consumer migration to 4G is in the last quartile of its adoption curve. Traditionally, that is when subscriber retention activities become more important than acquisition, lengthening smartphone replacement cycles.
Kevin Walsh, director of trends and forecasting at GfK comments, “Quarter one shows continued smartphone growth, however, we are seeing a slowdown in growth rates when we compare year-on-year performance. As a result, we have downgraded our 2016 growth forecast to five percent year-on-year. Operators and manufacturers are responding with a variety of strategies in the different regions, such as increased marketing activity and subsidies.”
China: Strongest growth in demand for almost two years
Smartphone demand in China reached 109.2 million in 1Q 2016, up two percent quarter-on-quarter and 19 percent year-on-year. This is the strongest year-on-year growth in demand in two years.
The desire for 4G is behind the impressive growth, with 4G smartphone demand in 1Q 2016 up 58 percent year-on-year. Increased operator subsidy support and the falling cost of data plans have made 4G smartphones more attractive and affordable. More than 95 percent of smartphones sold in the first quarter of 2016 were 4G enabled.
Overall, total smartphone demand in China will be 411 million units in 2016, up seven percent year-on-year.
|
Smartphones: 2015 sales vs. 2016 forecast
|
||||||
|
Units sold (in mil.) |
Sales value (in bn. US$) |
|||||
|
2015 sales |
2016 forecast |
Y/Y percent change |
2015 sales |
2016 forecast |
Y/Y percent change |
|
|
Western Europe |
137.3 |
133.6 |
-3% |
53.6 |
51.1 |
-5% |
|
Central & Eastern Europe |
73.4 |
77.1 |
+5% |
14.8 |
14.7 |
-1% |
|
North America |
190.8 |
197.4 |
+3% |
78.0 |
76.9 |
-1% |
|
Latin America |
110.3 |
97.2 |
-12% |
27.1 |
23.4 |
-14% |
