Major purchase intentions increase but are consumers suddenly taking a ‘wait and see’ stance on the economy? 

GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index increased one point to -13 in July. Two measures were up, one was down and two were unchanged in comparison to last month’s announcement.

Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director GfK, says: “There was a subdued one-point improvement in the Overall Index Score in July with only two of the five measures increasing. The seven-point uptick in the major purchase index is potentially good news for retailers that could translate into improved footfall in the months to come. The positive view on personal finances is encouraging with July’s score of -8, for the measure looking back over the last 12 months, up two points on the month before and the best since January 2022. But the consumer view on the UK’s wider economy has paused with scores that are identical to last month. Two important events during the survey period (UK general election result on July 5th, and England sealing its place on July 10th in the UEFA Euro 2024 Final) could have boosted the national mood but appear to have had limited positive impact. So, July’s consumer confidence poll suggests a note of caution as people wait to see exactly how the UK’s new government will affect the wider economy and their personal finances.”

UK Consumer Confidence Measures – July 2024

The Overall Index Score increased one point to -13 in July. Two measures were up, one was down and two were unchanged in comparison to last month’s announcement. 

Personal Financial Situation 

The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year is up two points at -8; this is 12 points better than July 2023.

The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months is down one point at +3, which is ten points higher than this time last year.

General Economic Situation 

The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is unchanged at -32; this is 26 points higher than in July 2023.  

Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months are also unchanged at -11; this is 22 points better than July 2023.

Major Purchase Index 

The Major Purchase Index is up seven points to -16; this is 16 points higher than this month last year.

Savings Index

The Savings Index has increased five points to +27 in June; this is one point higher than this time last year.

Measuring 50 Years of Consumer Confidence
January 2024 marked 50 years of the UK Consumer Confidence Barometer. There is no other consumer research project with the longevity, rigour and reliability of the Consumer Confidence Barometer. Each month since January 1974, this study has provided insight into how UK consumers feel about their personal finances and the wider economy, as well as the outlook for the next 12 months. Through the winter of discontent, the Falklands War, economic boom and bust, the Brexit vote, and most recently the coronavirus pandemic, CCB has seen many highs and lows over five decades. 

The highest value of the Overall Index Score – the headline score – was in January 1978, when it reached +21. It reached +16 twice in 1979 (first in July and again in September). The lowest score recorded was -49 in September 2022, and other lows include -39 in July 2008, during the global financial crisis, and a score of – 35 in March 1990, in the lead-up to the 1990/1991 recession. The largest monthly increase was in May 1993 when the headline score jumped 12 points. There have been seven monthly drops of 10 or more since the survey started, with the largest by far happening during the coronavirus crisis when it dropped 25 points from -9 in mid-March 2020 to -34 at the end of March.  

If you’d like the 50th-anniversary consumer confidence report, click here to download. 

Notes to editor
Please source all information to GfK.
Press contact: For further details or to arrange an interview, please contact Greenfields Communications:
Stuart Ridsdale E: stuart@greenfieldscommunications.com T +44 (0)7790 951229    
Lucy Green E: lucy@greenfieldscommunications.com T +44 (0) 7817 698366

About the survey

• The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK.
• This month’s survey was conducted among a sample of 2,005 individuals aged 16+ in the UK.
• Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
• Interviewing was conducted between June 28th and July 12th.
• The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
• The Overall Index Score is calculated using underlying data that runs to two decimal points.
• The press release dates for the remainder of 2024 are: August 23rd; September 20th; October 25th; November 22nd and December 13th.
• Any published material requires a reference to GfK e.g., ‘Research carried out by GfK.’
• This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 2006.
• The table below is an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:

About the GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM
There is no other consumer research project with the longevity, rigor, and reliability of GfK’s Consumer Confidence Barometer (CCB). Each month since January 1974, it has provided a snapshot of how UK consumers feel about the crucial economic topics today and their outlook for the next 12 months. It has provided insight into the UK’s thinking through boom and bust, the Brexit vote, and most recently the coronavirus pandemic. Since October 2023, GfK has been cooperating with the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), GfK’s not-for-profit founder, on the Consumer Confidence Barometer. The aim of the cooperation is to provide even more in-depth analysis of the reasons behind shifts in consumer confidence. GfK’s high-quality survey methodology and rigorous processes have not changed so there is no impact on the CCB dataset and trends. This is the background to the sourcing in the release, ‘GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM’.

About GfK 
For over 89 years, we have earned the trust of our clients around the world by solving critical questions in their decision-making process. We fuel their growth by providing a complete understanding of their consumers’ buying behavior, and the dynamics impacting their markets, brands and media trends. In 2023, GfK combined with NIQ, bringing together two industry leaders with unparalleled global reach. With a holistic retail read and the most comprehensive consumer insights – delivered with advanced analytics through state-of-the-art platforms – GfK drives “Growth from Knowledge”. For more information, visit www.gfk.com or follow www.twitter.com/GfK. 

Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM)
The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) is a non-profit research institute at the interface of academia and practice. NIM examines how consumer decisions change due to new technology, societal trends or the application of behavioral science, and what the resulting micro- and macroeconomic impacts are for the market and for society as a whole. A better understanding of consumer decisions and their impacts helps society, businesses, politics, and consumers make better decisions with regard to “prosperity for all” in the sense of the social-ecological market system. The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions is the founder of GfK. For more information, visit www.nim.org/en