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Report

Mid-Year Consumer Outlook: Guide to 2025

Future-focused insights into consumer spending and growth opportunities

Report

Mid-Year Consumer Outlook: Guide to 2025

Future-focused insights into consumer spending and growth opportunities


  • Global consumers were pressured at the beginning of the year, but the climate has shifted in the last six months, with resilient consumers regaining some confidence and spending power.
  • Navigating their shift from cautious to intentional consumption will require a deep understanding of what has changed, what disruptions remain, and what companies need to anticipate in the months ahead.
  • NIQ’s Mid-Year Consumer Outlook: Guide to 2025 provides a strategic roadmap for navigating how to win with vigilant, yet optimistic consumers over the next 12 to 18 months and beyond.

Consumer spending - woman reviewing a receipt

In this multifaceted analytical assessment of the state of consumers, we uncover what has changed, what disruptions remain, and what companies need to anticipate as they prepare for 2025. Below, we give an overview of each chapter of the downloadable report.


Mid-Year Consumer Outlook Chart 1 - consumers are showing signs of financial resilience but can't escape the cost-of-living crisis entirely

Mid-Year Consumer Outlook Chart 2 - The compounding effect of inflation

We explore departmental inflation and volume heat maps to illustrate how growth beyond inflation is possible. It can only be done with a full view of all available consumer targets (to know who you’re looking to engage) and with a deep understanding of how consumers of all financial circumstances will be spreading their spending across categories of interest.

In case you missed it

Watch our Mid-Year Consumer Outlook: Guide to 2025 webinar to uncover what has changed in consumer spending, what disruptions remain, and what companies need to anticipate in the months ahead.

Mid-Year Consumer Outlook Chart 3 - The 2024 economic divide

While overall consumer sentiment is clearly trending toward feeling more secure, a deeper look at changes in mindset indicates that many people are not resting on their laurels. In fact, 64% of global respondents say they are seeking additional income streams beyond their primary jobs.  

Mid-Year Consumer Outlook Chart 4 - Many are seeking additional income streams

In this chapter, we examine specific consumer spending intentions across categories and forecast emerging consumer trends powered by World Data Lab. These forward-looking measures illustrate how essential it will be to segment and target consumers aligned to the shifting spending power of financially polarized consumer groups


Mid-Year Consumer Outlook Chart 5 - Consumers have embraced (and expect) broader value from the concept of "discount"

But what happens when consumers are confronted with multiple promotional options, each offering a different value proposition? Companies must assess these nuances to learn how to align their promotional support, as well as merchandising and assortment strategies, to the specific deal types, pack sizes, formats, and channels that consumers would most like to encounter.

Lower cost per use

65%

say they’re switching to buy more large, bulk pack sizes of their product of choice

Lower cost to buy

52%

say they’re switching to buy more of the smaller pack sizes of their product of choice

In the case of “lower cost per use” vs. “lower cost to buy,” it’s clear that, right now, a larger majority (65%) of global consumers would prefer to buy larger, bulk pack sizes rather than smaller pack sizes at a lower initial cost to purchase (52%). This finding illustrates the importance of analyzing how assortment can be leveraged to influence—and even overcome—pure price-based decisioning.

To further underscore the real-world application of this sentiment, we provide a deep analysis of retail data and the associated shifts in channel dynamics. Brands that can deliver on consumer expectations, innovate often, and deliver affordable value in multiple ways will discover a world of opportunities previously unavailable to them.


Mid-Year Consumer Outlook Chart 6 - The AI revolution is here

Notably, these feelings are consistent across generational groups, with the highest level of resistance coming (perhaps not surprisingly) from older consumers. Given these sentiments, it will be essential for companies to assess which AI advancements make sense for their business and which will appeal to (rather than alienate) consumers.

All four emerging trends explored in our report outline the opportunities and challenges that exist for companies to capture momentum into 2025 and remain aligned to shifting consumer preferences along the way.


Image of a person wearing a backpack with produce inside


As retailers and manufacturers plan for 2025 and beyond, it’s important to leverage a full view of forward-looking data to anticipate how consumer demand and spending will continue to evolve.

Our guide to 2025 consumer spending can shine a light on how emerging needs, shifting spending power, and new retail considerations can be leveraged to maximize growth for manufacturers and retailers in the years to come.

About the author


Lauren Fernandes

Vice President | Global Thought Leadership

Lauren Fernandes is a data-driven thought leader and content strategist, serving as Vice President of Global Thought Leadership, Marketing & Communications for NIQ. Based in Toronto, Canada, she has a passion for exploring emerging trends and shifting consumer behaviors. Her work has scaled global audiences and clientele, helping manufacturers and retailers make more informed business decisions. For the past decade, Lauren has enjoyed sharing her perspectives and analytic pursuits via thought leadership content, industry publications, and to diverse audiences within the NIQ network and beyond.

In the news
In the news

Consumer spending to grow 6% in 2025: Nielsen IQ report

Watch NIQ’s Tracey Massey discuss some of the findings from Mid-Year Consumer Outlook on Yahoo Finance’s Wealth! show.