All measures up but Overall Index Score still near historic low
GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index increased three points in November to -44. All measures were up in comparison to the October 21st announcement.
Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director, GfK says:
“Despite the three-point rise in confidence to -44 this month, and improvements in all measures registering the financial and economic mood of the nation, November’s Overall Index Score remains at a near historic low. This month’s fillip is likely to reflect nothing more than a collective sigh of relief as a new prime minister takes charge following the alarming fiscal antics we saw in September. This is not the end of the beginning. External factors have changed little and, with UK inflation recently hitting a new high, more bad news is inevitable. Household budgets remain shrouded in massive uncertainty with fresh jumps in food prices, energy still uncomfortably expensive, the prospect of new interest rate rises pressurising mortgage and rent payments, potential future hikes in council tax and squeezed real pay. Consumers are looking for a festive cocktail of certainty and optimism not this mishmash of austerity and pessimism. Good news remains in short supply as many people struggle to manage the purse-strings during this protracted and painful cost-of-living crisis.”
UK Consumer Confidence Measures – November 2022
The Overall Index Score increased three points in November to -44. All measures were up in comparison to the October 21st announcement.
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances over the last 12 months went up four points to -24; this is 17 points worse than November 2021.
The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months has increased five points to -29; this is 31 points lower than this time last year.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is up two points at -67; this is 27 points lower than in November 2021.
Expectations for the general economic situation over the coming 12 months have improved by three points to -58, although this is still 35 points lower than November 2021.
Major Purchase Index
The Major Purchase Index is up three points to -38; this is 35 points lower than this month last year.
Savings Index
The Savings Index is up eight points this month at +21; this is six points better than this time last year.
About the survey
- The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK.
- This month’s survey was conducted among a sample of 2,000 individuals aged 16+.
- Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
- Interviewing was conducted between November 1st and November 11th 2022, before the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s Autumn Statement.
- The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
- The Overall Index Score is calculated using underlying data that runs to two decimal points.
- The date of the final press release for 2022 is December 16th. Dates for the first half of 2023 are: January 20th; February 24th; March 24th; April 21st; May 19th and June 23rd.
- Any published material requires a reference to GfK e.g. ‘Research carried out by GfK’.
- This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 2006.
- The table below provides an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:
|
Personal Financial Situation (Q1/Q2) |
This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse) |
|
General Economic Situation (Q3/Q4) |
This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse) |
|
Major Purchase Index (Q8) |
This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods?’ (right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time) |
|
Savings Index (Q10)
|
This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?’ (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save) (Commented on but not included in the Index Score) |
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