Headline score improves but consumers remain under pressure
GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index increased four points to -21 in September. All five measures were up in comparison to last month’s announcement.
Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director GfK, says: “Against the backdrop of falling inflation figures, growth in wages and high interest rates, UK consumer confidence rose this month to -21, the best recorded showing since January 2022. The view on our personal financial situation for the past year and the next is registering marginal but welcome growth, while expectations for the UK’s wider economy in the coming year show a more robust six-point increase. And with less than 100 shopping days to Christmas, the four-point boost to the major purchase measure might offer some hope to retailers, who know all too well that many people face financial pressure in the run-up to this year’s festive season. While this month’s improved headline score is good news, it’s important to note many households are still struggling with the cost-of-living crisis and that economic conditions are tough. The reality is that consumer confidence remains suppressed, and the financial mood of the nation is still negative.”
UK Consumer Confidence Measures – September 2023
The Overall Index Score increased four points to -21 in September. All five measures were up in comparison to last month’s announcement.
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year is up two points at -13; this is 15 points better than September 2022.
The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months increased one point to -2, which is 38 points higher than this time last year.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is up five points at -47; this is 25 points higher than in September 2022.
Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months have increased by six points to -30; this is 44 points better than September 2022.
Major Purchase Index
The Major Purchase Index is up four points to -20; this is 18 points higher than this month last year.
Savings Index
The Savings Index is unchanged at +27; this is 16 points higher than this time last year.
Notes to editor
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- The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK.
- This month’s survey was conducted among a sample of 2,001 individuals aged 16+.
- Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
- Interviewing was conducted between September 1st and September 13th 2023.
- The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
- The Overall Index Score is calculated using underlying data that runs to two decimal points.
- Press release dates for the remainder of 2023 are: October 20th; November 24th; December 15th.The first three dates for 2024 are: January 26th; February 23rd; March 22nd.
- Any published material requires a reference to GfK e.g. ‘Research carried out by GfK’.
- This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 2006.
- The table below provides an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:
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Personal Financial Situation (Q1/Q2) |
This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse) |
|
General Economic Situation (Q3/Q4) |
This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse) |
|
Major Purchase Index (Q8) |
This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods?’ (right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time) |
|
Savings Index (Q10)
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This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?’ (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save) (Commented on but not included in the Index Score) |
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