Slow economic growth, high inflation and weak consumer confidence have significantly impacted global spending in recent years. But while macroeconomic trends are unlikely to improve in the foreseeable future, there are still plenty of lucrative opportunities in the global Beverage Alcohol market for suppliers—but only if they can achieve a deep understanding of the latest market trends and consumers’ needs.
By Graeme Loudon, Global Customer Success Lead – On-Premise.
Content
Consumers and BevAl spending
People’s worries about their disposable incomes have led to some substantial shifts in behaviour, impacting consumption in both the On-and Off-Premise. When it comes to BevAl in restaurants, bars and pubs, guests have been recalibrating their priorities and sharpening their focus on value. NIQ’s global research shows a small drop in visits to pubs, bars and restaurants this year, yet consumers average monthly spend in the channel is up by +0.24%, leading to a value decline in BevAl of –0.6%. Volumes are down further however, and this is driven by many consumers moderating their BevAl intake—not simply for financial reasons, but for health and wellbeing ones too.
A ‘less is more’ mindset
While consumers have become more mindful about their choices, they remain eager to drink out when they can. They often see it as an affordable treat or as an integral part of their day-to-day routine, with 83% typically visiting the On-Premise at least quarterly. When they visit, spend-pressured consumers want to ensure they are getting good value from their experience, so value plays an increasingly important role in their alcohol choices. However, it’s important to remember that when they demand value, that doesn’t necessarily mean cheap. Most consumers link it more to quality and want to be sure that a drink will be worth the price that they pay.
This has led to many people opting for quality over quantity in their BevAl spending. Asked about their intentions with a set amount of money, two thirds (66%) of consumers say they would buy one or two luxury or high quality drinks, while only 9% would buy four or five cheaper ones. It means that although volumes have dropped slightly, premiumization and price rises have helped business to see an opportunity to achieve growth in value terms.
Trends mirrored at home
These macros consumer trends have also created a challenging environment for BevAl brands in the take home channel. Although beverages have been the fastest growing FMCG segment, rising by 5.3% year-on-year, this growth has been driven by non-alcoholic beverages, where volumes have risen by 2.3% year-on-year whereas BevAl volumes are in 1.0% decline, demonstrating a strong shift in volumes from alcoholic to non-alcoholic beverages. Consumers also seek to moderate their alcohol consumption at home, and whilst the number of consumers shopping the BevAl category remains relatively stable, the frequency with which they purchase has declined alongside the number of units purchased on each trip.
As moderation continues to embed itself in people’s habits, there will be continued potential for suppliers in no and low alcohol across both the On & Off Premise. A less but better approach also creates opportunities for growth for BevAl brands in the premium space, but given the challenging financial climate for consumers, any confidence for prospects in 2026 need to be tempered with caution and strategies need to be highly targeted to win in this space.
Caution is the new normal
Looking ahead to 2026, there are some cautiously positive economic indicators. Inflation has steadily decreased to a projected 3.1% in the third quarter of 2025 and some consumer confidence scores are edging up. NIQ’s Consumer Outlook report shows there is a broadly even split in global consumers saying they are better off financially than they were a year ago (30%), and those who are worse off (33%), and it forecasts continued volatility in 2026. But while some macroeconomic metrics are moving in the right direction, spending will continue to be intentional and mindful, and every purchase will have to earn its place. Understanding the demographics, brand preferences and behaviours of these consumer groups is key to a successful brand strategy.
The total trade view of success
These and many more cultural shifts in BevAl consumption mean businesses will have to adapt fast to seize growth opportunities in the months ahead. Doing so demands an expert understanding of the landscape in both the out-of-home and retail sectors, and of people’s fast-evolving purchase drivers. There’s a lot to play for in the global BevAl market in 2026, and the need to find the right product for the right customer in the right place will be more crucial than ever.
NIQ’s unique portfolio of research provides this essential total trade view of BevAl channel and brand performance, helping manufacturers, retailers and operators to get a 360-degree perspective of the very latest market developments.
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