With just over a month to go until Christmas Day, the UK’s “Golden Quarter” is underway and the early signals are clear: shoppers are holding off on spending and affordability remains front‑of‑mind. As retailers and brands build momentum into December, the first four weeks provide a crucial read on what we can expect.
Here are some key takeaways.
Four weeks in, what’s happening?
- Christmas remains the standout occasion for incremental spend: 76% of UK households bought extra or special items for Christmas 2024, reaffirming the event’s central role in annual FMCG spend.
- Value is concentrating in Q4: Some supercategories rely even more heavily on the Golden Quarter – Non‑Food (30.8% of annual value in Q4), BWS (28.9%), HBPC & Baby (27.5%), Impulse (27.5%) – highlighting where festive execution matters most.
- Shoppers are holding back ahead of deal days: Sales are down as we expect consumers wait for Black Friday and Christmas deals.
Cost of Living: how households are adapting at Christmas
Affordability is shaping plans for the main Christmas meal and the extras around it. The most common changes last year included:
- Cutting food waste / only cooking what will be eaten (27%);
- Cutting back on chocolates, nuts and similar after‑meal treats (18%);
- Buying a smaller cut of meat/poultry (13%);
- Hosting fewer or no guests (12%);
- Adding more vegetables (11%)
These behaviours point to a more intentional basket: prioritizing core meal components while tempering indulgences – especially when price rises cluster around traditional dinner staples.
Category highlights in the first 4 weeks
- Total Christmas categories: Value is up +3.9%. Inflation is supporting value, but unit movement is more muted, reflecting cautious volume buying early on in the quarter.
- Christmas Dinner: Christmas dinner foods saw the highest price increases among Christmas categories which is likely squeezing discretionary budget for extras.
- Sweet Snacking: Significant price inflation is driving unit declines week‑on‑week. Promotions will need to work harder to stimulate shoppers to buy into more sweet treats this Christmas.
- Gifting & Hampers: A category showing strong performance in the first four weeks – value +11.7% and units +4.4% vs YA. This is being driven mostly by toiletries gift packs.
- Christmas General Merchandise: Value and volume in decline, as shoppers may reuse decorations from previous years to stick to their budget.
Our Perspective
“There are multiple factors on shoppers’ minds heading towards Christmas, however affordability will be significant for most UK households with more households feeling severely or moderately impacted by the Cost of Living compared to last year. Our most recent data shows shoppers are planning to cut back on luxuries such as chocolate and alcohol this Christmas as a result of the Cost of Living – which remains UK shoppers’ top concern right now.” – Tom Oakton, Thought Leadership Specialist
What it means for retailers and brands
- Price will highly influence what ends up on the dinner table on Christmas Day
Focus on price communication (and loyalty personalization) on key Christmas dinner categories where inflation is steepest to encourage shoppers to spend or even trade up slightly, while also unlocking headroom for complementary treats.
- Use promotions to restore units in indulgence categories
In sweet snacking, alcohol and other luxuries, promotions will play an important role this Christmas as consumers search for value. These categories can make affordable gifts which may be a key area to lean on.
- Plan for extended celebrations
As festivities spill over multiple days into the weekend, replenish for parties and social snacking. There may be potential for more out-of-home occasions this Christmas too.
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