NIQ Retail Spend Barometer
Germany

• Falling inflation and targeted European Championships (EM) promotions boost consumption in the short term, especially for snacks and consumer electronics.
• Weather influences consumer behavior: Beer and ice cream down, snacks up on EM, barbecues and DIY purchases shift.
• Despite short-term stimuli, long-term uncertainties remain: Consumers show increased propensity to save again in August, income and economic expectations fall.

In Germany, private spending on everyday consumer goods (FMCG) and consumer durables (tech & durables) rose slightly by 0.8% in the second quarter of 2024. While the FMCG market grew, the overall market for technical consumer goods declined slightly compared to the same period last year. Based on the third NIQ Retail Spend Barometer, the retail experts from NIQ/GfK analyze which factors played a role and how the European Football Championship affected the development.

Overall, the EM effect for FMCG was not as strong as expected. Consumption of beer and ice cream, typical summer categories, declined during the mostly rainy European Championships. Demand only rose again from the sunnier calendar week 26, i.e. towards the end of the tournament, underlining the importance of weather conditions for consumption. The snacks category saw a clear increase in sales (4.1% growth). In June, consumers bought significantly more snacks than in the other months of the second quarter – the NIQ/GfK experts clearly attribute this effect to the European Football Championship.

With turnover down 2.8% on the second quarter of 2023, the market for technical durables declined once again. However, the individual sectors developed very differently.

The sharp rise in sales figures in the consumer electronics sector is clearly attributable to the European Championships, as manufacturers boosted their business with targeted promotions during this period.

The IT category, which has not yet recovered from the reluctance to buy during the inflation peak, again performed negatively. The DIY and home improvement category also recorded a negative trend. Here, too, the weather had a significant impact: due to the mild temperatures in the first quarter, purchases were brought forward to this period, followed by the resulting decline in May and June. The situation is similar for barbecues: this category also recorded rising sales in March and April of this year. In the unexpectedly rainy months of May and June, demand fell in comparison to the previous months – even the EM was unable to reverse this effect.

The development of the T&D and FMCG market is stable with slight sales growth of 0.8%. The falling inflation rate in particular contributed to the increased propensity to buy. However, the European Championships did not have a cross-category effect. Instead, only individual product categories, such as snacks and consumer electronics, benefited from the major sporting event. The European Championships thus caused short-term euphoria among some retailers – but it remains to be seen whether the market stabilization will last in the long term.

“Promotions during the European Championships had the desired effect in many product areas. Consumers increasingly resorted to discounts. This shows us once again that it pays off to make attractive offers to consumers at the right time. At the end of the year, for example, Black Friday or Christmas are ideal for this. Retailers should also incorporate social media more strongly into their marketing strategies. Our analyses have shown that users are becoming increasingly aware of products on social networks – especially in the small electrical appliances sector.”

Oliver Schmitz, Head of Retail DACH at NIQ and GfK

2023