Key future indicators on personal finances, economy and purchase intentions all sharply lower.
London, September 20th, 2024 – Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to -20 in September. All measures were down in comparison to last month’s announcement.
Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights Director, NIQ GfK, says: “Headline consumer confidence has recorded a big fall this month to -20, taking us back to a similar level seen at the beginning of this year. All five measures are down but there are major corrections in the outlook for our personal financial situation for the next 12 months (down nine points), our views on the general economy for the coming year (down 12 points), and the major purchase index (down ten points). These three measures are key forward-looking indicators so, despite stable inflation and the prospect of further cuts in the base interest rate, this is not encouraging news for the UK’s new government. Strong consumer confidence matters because it underpins economic growth and is a significant driver of shoppers’ willingness to spend. Following the withdrawal of the winter fuel payments, and clear warnings of further difficult decisions to come on tax, spending and welfare, consumers are nervously awaiting the Budget decisions on 30th October.”
UK Consumer Confidence Measures – September 2024
The Overall Index Score fell sharply to -20 in September. All measures were down in comparison to last month’s announcement.
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year is down two points at -9; this is nine points better than September 2023.
The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months is down nine points at -3, which is three points higher than this time last year.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is down two points at -37; this is 16 points higher than in September 2023.
Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months are down 12 points at -27; this is two points better than September 2023.
Major Purchase Index
TheMajor Purchase Index is down ten points to -23; this is five points higher than this month last year.
Savings Index
The Savings Index has decreased ten points to +23; this is the same as this time last year.
About the survey
- The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK.
- This month’s survey was conducted among a sample of 2,003 individuals aged 16+ in the UK.
- Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
- Interviewing was conducted between August 30th and September 13th.
- The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
- The Overall Index Score is calculated using underlying data that runs to two decimal points.
- The press release dates for the remainder of 2024 are: October 25th; November 22nd and December 13th.
- Any published material requires a reference to GfK e.g., ‘Research carried out by GfK.’
- This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 2006.
- The table below is an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:
| Personal Financial Situation (Q1/Q2) | This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse) |
| General Economic Situation (Q3/Q4) | This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse) |
| Major Purchase Index (Q8) | This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods?’ (right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time) |
| Savings Index (Q10) | This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?’ (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save) (Commented on but not included in the Index Score) |
About the GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM
There is no other consumer research project with the longevity, rigor, and reliability of GfK’s Consumer Confidence Barometer (CCB). Each month since January 1974, it has provided a snapshot of how UK consumers feel about the crucial economic topics today and their outlook for the next 12 months. It has provided insight into the UK’s thinking through boom and bust, the Brexit vote, and most recently the coronavirus pandemic. Since October 2023, GfK has been cooperating with the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), GfK’s not-for-profit founder, on the Consumer Confidence Barometer. The aim of the cooperation is to provide even more in-depth analysis of the reasons behind shifts in consumer confidence. GfK’s high-quality survey methodology and rigorous processes have not changed so there is no impact on the CCB dataset and trends. This is the background to the sourcing in the release, ‘GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM’.
About GfK
For over 89 years, we have earned the trust of our clients around the world by solving critical questions in their decision-making process. We fuel their growth by providing a complete understanding of their consumers’ buying behavior, and the dynamics impacting their markets, brands and media trends. In 2023, GfK combined with NIQ, bringing together two industry leaders with unparalleled global reach. With a holistic retail read and the most comprehensive consumer insights – delivered with advanced analytics through state-of-the-art platforms – GfK drives “Growth from Knowledge”.
About NIM
The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) is a non-profit research institute at the interface of academia and practice. NIM examines how consumer decisions change due to new technology, societal trends or the application of behavioral science, and what the resulting micro- and macroeconomic impacts are for the market and for society as a whole. A better understanding of consumer decisions and their impacts helps society, businesses, politics, and consumers make better decisions with regard to “prosperity for all” in the sense of the social-ecological market system. The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions is the founder of GfK. For more information, visit www.nim.org/en
