Key future indicators on personal finances and
purchase intentions edge up as general economic situation falls
London, October 25th, 2024 – Long-running Consumer Confidence Index fell one point to -21 in October. Three measures declined and two rose compared to September’s announcement.
Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights Director, NIQ GfK, says: “Consumer confidence fell one point this month to -21, taking the score back down to the level last seen in March this year. Also falling one point are both personal financial situation over the last 12 months and general economic situation over the next 12 months. The largest drop though was in our view of the general economic situation over the last 12 months, down five points to -42. On the plus side, the major purchase index rose two points and future personal financial expectations by one point. As the Budget statement looms, consumers are in a despondent mood despite a fall in the headline rate of inflation. This month’s Consumer Confidence Barometer paints a picture of people holding their breath to see what’s in store for them on 30th October.”
UK Consumer Confidence Measures – October 2024
The Overall Index Score fell one point to -21 in October. Three measures were down and two were up compared to last month’s announcement.
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year is down one point at -10; this is nine points better than October 2023.
The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months is up one point at -2, which is six points higher than this time last year.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is down five points at -42; this is 12 points higher than in October 2023.
Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months are down 1 point at -28; this is four points better than October 2023.
Major Purchase Index
The Major Purchase Index is up two points to -21; this is 13 points higher than this month last year.
Savings Index
The Savings Index rose four points to +27; this is two points higher than October 2023.
About the survey
- The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK.
- This month’s survey was conducted among a sample of 2,001 individuals aged 16+ in the UK.
- Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
- Interviewing was conducted between October 1st and 15th.
- The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
- The Overall Index Score is calculated using underlying data that runs to two decimal points.
- The press release dates for the remainder of 2024 are: November 22nd and December 13th. Q1 2025 dates are January 24th, February 21st and March 21st.
- Any published material requires a reference to GfK e.g., ‘Research carried out by GfK.’
- This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 2006.
- The table below is an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:
| Personal Financial Situation (Q1/Q2) | This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse) |
| General Economic Situation (Q3/Q4) | This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse) |
| Major Purchase Index (Q8) | This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods?’ (right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time) |
| Savings Index (Q10) | This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?’ (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save) (Commented on but not included in the Index Score) |
About the GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM
There is no other consumer research project with the longevity, rigor, and reliability of GfK’s Consumer Confidence Barometer (CCB). Each month since January 1974, it has provided a snapshot of how UK consumers feel about the crucial economic topics today and their outlook for the next 12 months. It has provided insight into the UK’s thinking through boom and bust, the Brexit vote, and most recently the coronavirus pandemic. Since October 2023, GfK has been cooperating with the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), GfK’s not-for-profit founder, on the Consumer Confidence Barometer. The aim of the cooperation is to provide even more in-depth analysis of the reasons behind shifts in consumer confidence. GfK’s high-quality survey methodology and rigorous processes have not changed so there is no impact on the CCB dataset and trends. This is the background to the sourcing in the release, ‘GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM’.
About GfK
For over 89 years, we have earned the trust of our clients around the world by solving critical questions in their decision-making process. We fuel their growth by providing a complete understanding of their consumers’ buying behavior, and the dynamics impacting their markets, brands and media trends. In 2023, GfK combined with NIQ, bringing together two industry leaders with unparalleled global reach. With a holistic retail read and the most comprehensive consumer insights – delivered with advanced analytics through state-of-the-art platforms – GfK drives “Growth from Knowledge”.
About NIM
The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) is a non-profit research institute at the interface of academia and practice. NIM examines how consumer decisions change due to new technology, societal trends or the application of behavioral science, and what the resulting micro- and macroeconomic impacts are for the market and for society as a whole. A better understanding of consumer decisions and their impacts helps society, businesses, politics, and consumers make better decisions with regard to “prosperity for all” in the sense of the social-ecological market system. The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions is the founder of GfK. For more information, visit www.nim.org/en
