Marginal improvements in perceptions of UK economy but confidence is still fragile
London, March 21st, 2025 – GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index increased by one point to -19 in March. Two measures were up, two were down and one was unchanged in comparison to last month’s announcement.
Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights Director, NIQ GfK, says:
“Consumer confidence remains subdued with a headline score of -19 for March. Views on personal finances for the past year are slightly down from -7 to -9, while perceptions of the wider economy over the last 12 months and looking ahead a year are each up two points at -42 and -29 respectively. But this is only a marginal improvement. Since September last year, the headline has been in a range of -17 to -22. This is more positive than mid-2022 into early 2023 at the height of the cost-of-living crisis, which delivered the worst headline scores ever including nine months at -40 or worse. But we are still below the long-term average of -10. If consumer confidence were a patient languishing in a hospital bed, a doctor would say there is little evidence of a recovery as yet. Where do we go from here? The current stability is to be welcomed but it won’t take much to upset the fragile consumer mood.”
UK Consumer Confidence Measures – March 2025
The Overall Index Score increased by one point to -19 in March. Two measures were up, two were down and one was unchanged in comparison to last month’s announcement.
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year is down two points at -9; this is four points better than March 2024.
The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months is down one point at +1, which is one point worse than this time last year.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is up two points to -42; this is three points better than in March 2024.
Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months have improved two points to -29; but this is six points worse than March 2024.
Major Purchase Index
The Major Purchase Index is unchanged at -17; this is ten points better than this month last year.
Savings Index
The Savings Index has tumbled five points to +25 in March; this is the same as this time last year.
About the survey
- The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK.
- This month’s survey was conducted among a sample of 2,005 individuals aged 16+ in the UK.
- Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region, and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
- Interviewing was conducted between February 28th and March 13th 2025.
- The figures in the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
- The Overall Index Score is calculated using underlying data that runs to two decimal points.
- Press release dates for 2025 are: April 25th; May 23rd; June 20th; July 25th; August 22nd; September 19th; October 24th; November 21st; December 19th.
- Any published material requires a reference to GfK e.g., ‘Research carried out by GfK.’
- This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 2006.
- The table below is an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:
| Personal Financial Situation (Q1/Q2) | This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse) |
| General Economic Situation (Q3/Q4) | This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse) |
| Major Purchase Index (Q8) | This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods?’ (right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time) |
| Savings Index (Q10) | This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?’ (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save) (Commented on but not included in the Index Score) |
About the GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM
There is no other consumer research project with the longevity, rigor, and reliability of GfK’s Consumer Confidence Barometer (CCB). Each month since January 1974, it has provided a snapshot of how UK consumers feel about the crucial economic topics today and their outlook for the next 12 months. It has provided insight into the UK’s thinking through boom and bust, the Brexit vote, and most recently the coronavirus pandemic. Since October 2023, GfK has been cooperating with the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), GfK’s not-for-profit founder, on the Consumer Confidence Barometer. The cooperation aims to provide an even more in-depth analysis of the reasons behind shifts in consumer confidence. GfK’s high-quality survey methodology and rigorous processes are unchanged so there is no impact on the CCB dataset and trends. This is the background to the sourcing in the release, ‘GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM’.
About NielsenIQ
NielsenIQ (NIQ) is a leading consumer intelligence company, delivering the most complete understanding of consumer buying behavior and revealing new pathways to growth. NIQ combined with GfK in 2023, bringing together two industry leaders with unparalleled global reach. Our global reach spans over 90 countries covering approximately 85% of the world’s population and more than $7.2 trillion in global consumer spend. With a holistic retail read and the most comprehensive consumer insights—delivered with advanced analytics through state-of-the-art platforms—NIQ delivers the Full View™.
For more information, please visit www.niq.com
About GfK – a NielsenIQ company
For 90 years, clients around the world have trusted us to provide data-driven answers to key questions for their decision-making processes. We support their growth through our comprehensive understanding of buying behavior and the dynamics that influence markets, brands, and media trends. In 2023, industry leaders GfK and NielsenIQ have merged to offer their clients unparalleled global reach. With a holistic view of retail and the most comprehensive consumer insights, provided by forward-looking analytics on state-of-the-art platforms, GfK is driving “Growth from Knowledge.”
About NIM
The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) is a non-profit research institute at the interface of academia and practice. NIM examines how consumer decisions change due to new technology, societal trends or the application of behavioral science, and what the resulting micro- and macroeconomic impacts are for the market and for society as a whole. A better understanding of consumer decisions and their impacts helps society, businesses, politics, and consumers make better decisions with regard to “prosperity for all” in the sense of the social-ecological market system. The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions is the founder of GfK. For more information, visit www.nim.org/en
