The Guest List: Who Will Celebrate and How They’ll Spend

Thanksgiving remains one of the most widely celebrated U.S. holidays, but how consumers celebrate—and how much they spend—depends on household demographics and financial realities. Thanksgiving is still overwhelmingly a home-based event. 88% of consumers plan to celebrate with a meal at home, while just 4% expect to dine out. Younger hosts are more open to shortcuts and meal helpers, while older generations lean toward tradition.

Finances are also shaping expectations. 42% of last year’s celebrators, particularly higher-income households, plan to spend more in 2025. Lower-income households, however, are looking for ways to cut back. With 58% of consumers extremely concerned about food inflation—up three points since January—spending patterns will remain uneven.

New payment behaviors are emerging as well. 15% of households say they will use Buy Now, Pay Later services for their holiday shopping, with another 18% considering it. These shifts highlight the divide between households trading up for indulgence and those searching for savings.

Food Prep: Recipes, Inspiration, and the Role of AI

For many households, the heart of Thanksgiving begins in the planning. More than half of consumers (52%) say they plan to try new recipes this year. Gen Z and Millennials are most likely to seek inspiration, while Boomers and Gen X remain committed to trusted family favorites.

Social media continues to influence the menu. 13% of households say they will consult influencers or platforms like Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, or YouTube for Thanksgiving ideas. While not the leading decision driver, these channels play a growing role in shaping how younger generations experiment with flavors and presentations.

Technology is adding another layer to preparation. 16% of consumers already plan to use AI for Thanksgiving planning, and another 18% are considering it. Millennials, high-income households, and adults with teens are the most likely to experiment with AI tools for recipes, shopping lists, or wine pairings.

The Shopping Trip: When and Where Consumers Will Buy

Timing is everything. 32% of households say they will shop early, particularly Millennials and higher-income families who want to spread costs or avoid last-minute stress. While 78% will shop at their usual retailers, nearly one in four plan to switch. Hispanic households and lower-income consumers are most likely to change their patterns, with big-box, discount, and club channels set to benefit.

Even as online shopping expands, the in-store environment remains critical. Refrigerated displays, assortment depth, and promotional timing drive discovery and decision-making in real time. Retailers who prepare early and position assortments effectively will capture both loyal shoppers and holiday switchers.

The Menu: What Will Be on—and off—the Table

Generational differences shape not only what households bring to gatherings but also what ends up on the table. Millennials are most likely to contribute fresh produce and plant-based alternatives, while Boomers lean heavily on desserts and side dishes. Gen Z gravitates toward bread and rolls, while high-income households lead in alcohol contributions.

Alcohol overall faces challenges, with among households looking to save money, 25% plan to reduce or eliminate it from their celebrations. This signals a headwind for traditional categories while creating opportunities for non-alcoholic alternatives.

Once adopted, fresh and premium categories can command significant loyalty. The average household that purchases fresh food for pets or humans alike often invests meaningfully, mirroring the same values of health, transparency, and indulgence that now shape Thanksgiving tables.

What’s the Winning Recipe: Tradeoffs and Brand Headwinds

Even as tradition anchors the holiday, consumers are making pragmatic tradeoffs. 91% of households say they are willing to make adjustments to manage costs. Staples like turkey and potatoes remain non-negotiable, but fewer shoppers are prioritizing premium claims such as sustainability, organics, or health-forward positioning this year.

Private Label is a clear winner. 25% of households plan to buy more of it, and 31% say they will choose it over name brands whenever possible. 65% of consumers are comfortable serving Private Label at Thanksgiving, while only 5% say they will prioritize name brands. Millennials are leading this shift, signaling long-term implications for brand loyalty.

For manufacturers, differentiation is critical. Competing on heritage, taste, and emotional resonance can help reinforce relevance. For retailers, spotlighting quality and value in Private Label lines will capture share in a year when consumers are seeking balance between indulgence and affordability.