Major Purchase Index plunges by 14 points in run-up to festive season
GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index decreased nine points to -30 in October. All five measures were down in comparison to last month’s announcement.
Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director GfK, says: “UK consumer confidence has fallen nine points this month to -30 and takes us back to where we were in July this year. This sharp fall underlines that the cost-of-living crisis, and simply not having enough money to make-ends-meet, are still exerting acute pressure for many consumers. The fierce headwinds of meeting the accelerating costs of heating our homes, filling our petrol tanks, coping with surging mortgage and rental rates, a slowing jobs market and now the uncertainties posed by conflict in the Middle East, are all contributing to this growing unease. The timing of the sharp drop in our major purchase measure – down 14 points – will concern retailers across the land in the run-up to Christmas. The volatility we are seeing in consumer confidence is a sure sign of a depressed economic mood and there’s no immediate prospect of any improvement.”
UK Consumer Confidence Measures – October 2023
The Overall Index Score decreased nine points to -30 in October. All five measures were down in comparison to last month’s announcement.
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year is up down six points at -19; this is nine points better than October 2022.
The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months decreased six points to -8, which is 26 points higher than this time last year.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is down seven points at -54; this is 15 points higher than in October 2022.
Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months have decreased by eight points to -32; this is 29 points better than October 2022.
Major Purchase Index
The Major Purchase Index is down 14 points to -34; this is seven points higher than this month last year.
Savings Index
The Savings Index is down two points at +25; this is 12 points higher than this time last year.
Notes to editor
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- The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK.
- This month’s survey was conducted among a sample of 2,000 individuals aged 16+.
- Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
- Interviewing was conducted between October 2nd and October 12th 2023.
- The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
- The Overall Index Score is calculated using underlying data that runs to two decimal points.
- Press release dates for the remainder of 2023 are: November 24th and December 15th.The first three dates for 2024 are: January 26th; February 23rd; March 22nd.
- Any published material requires a reference to GfK e.g. ‘Research carried out by GfK’.
- This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 2006.
- The table below provides an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:
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Personal Financial Situation (Q1/Q2) |
This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse) |
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General Economic Situation (Q3/Q4) |
This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’ ‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse) |
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Major Purchase Index (Q8) |
This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods?’ (right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time) |
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Savings Index (Q10)
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This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?’ (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save) (Commented on but not included in the Index Score) |
About the GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer
There is no other consumer research project with the longevity, rigor, and reliability of GfK’s Consumer Confidence Barometer (CCB). Each month since January 1974, it has provided a snapshot of how UK consumers feel on the crucial economic topics today and their outlook for the next 12 months. It has provided insight into the UK’s thinking through boom and bust, the Brexit vote, and most recently the coronavirus pandemic. Since October 2023, GfK has worked with the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), the founder of GfK, to provide additional in-depth analysis into the reasons behind shifts in consumer confidence.
About GfK
For over 89 years, we have earned the trust of our clients around the world by solving critical questions in their decision-making process. We fuel their growth by providing a complete understanding of their consumers’ buying behavior, and the dynamics impacting their markets, brands and media trends. In 2023, GfK combined with NIQ, bringing together two industry leaders with unparalleled global reach. With a holistic retail read and the most comprehensive consumer insights – delivered with advanced analytics through state-of-the-art platforms – GfK drives “Growth from Knowledge”. For more information, visit www.gfk.com or follow www.twitter.com/GfK.
Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen e.V.
The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) is a non-profit research institute at the interface of academia and practice. NIM examines how consumer decisions change due to new technology, societal trends or the application of behavioral science, and what the resulting micro- and macroeconomic impacts are for the market and for society as a whole. A better understanding of consumer decisions and their impacts helps society, businesses, politics, and consumers make better decisions with regard to “prosperity for all” in the sense of the social-ecological market system. The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions is the founder of GfK. For more information, visit www.nim.org
