As hospitality settles into 2026, expert research from NIQ, powered by CGA intelligence, reveals what might be coming down the line.
From sales to sites and costs to confidence levels, NIQ’s review of 2025 has the insights needed for operators and suppliers to plan for growth and resilience. Here are ten of the top takeaways.
Top insights
1. Managed pubs ahead in a flat year of like-for-likes
While 2025 ended with a flurry of festive spending, the sales landscape across the year was largely flat. The NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker shows managed groups’ year-on-year sales growth beat inflation for just one month out of 12 on a like-for-like basis. Pubs were the year’s standout channel, comfortably outpacing restaurants in every month.
2. New openings drive real-terms growth
Although like-for-like sales were static, managed groups and their investors were confident enough to open new sites. This meant that total sales, including at venues opened in 2025, were up by 4.0% year-on-year. The figure was just ahead of the inflation rate of 3.4%, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index—a sign that some operators enjoyed good real-terms growth despite the tough trading environment.
3. Takeaways drop, deliveries rise
Last year saw consumers continue to move away from restaurant takeaways to the convenience of deliveries. NIQ’s Hospitality at Home Tracker has measured a year-on-year drop in takeaway and click-and-collect sales every month since April, but delivery revenue has generally been above inflation in the same period. At-home trading will be crucial to offsetting any softness in eat-in sales in 2026.
4. Rapid churn in sites
Managed groups’ openings contrasted with the independent sector, which saw a 0.7% net decline in site numbers in 2025. The NIQ Hospitality Market Monitor reveals a state of flux throughout the year, with 4,865 licensed premises closing but 4,659 new venues opening. Overall, the market shrunk just 0.2% in 2025, but closures accelerated in the final quarter and further churn can be expected in 2026.
5. Indies lead bar revival
Managed bars’ sales were down year-on-year in 2025, but the channel has shown impressive resilience in site terms. NIQ’s Hospitality Market Monitor shows the bar and bar restaurant segments grew by 2.2% and 1.4% respectively, driven in large part by a steady stream of openings by entrepreneurs and emerging groups.
6. Sales peak in early evening
Changes in consumers’ habits have seen a gradual movement towards earlier eating and drinking occasions. That trend reached a tipping point in 2025, as NIQ’s Trading Index revealed the 5pm-to-7pm trading period had overtaken the late evening (7pm to 10pm) for average rate of sale for the first time.
7. Costs squeezing profits and confidence
Relentless cost pressures in key areas continued in 2025. The Foodservice Price Index from NIQ and Prestige consistently ran ahead of wider inflation levels, while extra National Insurance costs took a heavy toll from April. Operators have been forced to raise their prices as a result, but inflation has still compromised profits, with 30% of leaders reporting a year-on-year drop in profit in the third quarter of 2025. Late in the year the Business Confidence Survey from NIQ and Sona found that just 26% of leaders feel optimistic about prospects for their business over the next 12 months, with planned rises in business rates a particular concern.
8. Cost of living pressures persist
Inflation continues to dent the confidence of consumers as well as business leaders. In December well over half (55%) told NIQ’s Consumer Pulse research that they were severely or moderately affected by the cost of living crisis—down only slightly from 58% a year earlier. Nevertheless, underlying demand for hospitality remains strong, and there are cautious signs that consumers may be a little freer with their visit frequencies and average spends in 2026.
9. Discounts creeping up
Operators are working hard to overcome consumers’ economic anxieties, and discounts and promotions have been a key tool. Discounted sales were worth 8.0% of the total in 2023, but they rose to 9.4% in 2025. While reductions eased over Christmas, they have become far more prominent in January 2026, particularly in food.
10. Quality perceptions rising
Encouragingly, the large majority of consumers remain very happy with their hospitality experiences. Nearly nine in ten (86%) said they were satisfied with their most recent On Premise visit, a notable increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year. However, some satisfaction metrics remain under pressure—including value for money, which dropped by 2 percentage points.
Download the full 2025 Hospitality Year in Review
Access the complete analysis to understand demand shifts, capture the early‑evening opportunity, and align delivery for profitable growth in Great Britain.
