Why flat headline figures hide rapid market change
Flat sites and sales
NIQ’s data shows how key On-Premise metrics have remained static this year. They include the number of licensed premises, which dropped by just 0.2% in the 12 months to June, according to the Hospitality Market Monitor.
Sales have been essentially unchanged too. The NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker shows like-for-like sales for managed pub, restaurant and bar groups have hovered less than 2 percentage points either side of zero in every month of 2026 so far. This is slightly below Britain’s rate of inflation as measured by the Consumer Prices Index, but real-terms growth has tracked just above it, thanks to modest but steady new openings by some operators.
Similarly, consumers’ levels of visitation and spend are virtually unchanged. NIQ’s BrandTrack data indicates that 42% of consumers went out to eat weekly in the first half of 2026—just 1 percentage point fewer than 12 months earlier. Average spend per head stood at £24.49, which is just 24 pence more than in the first half of 2025.
Churn and change
However, while things appear calm on the surface of hospitality, there’s a lot of turbulence underneath. Headline On-Premise numbers may be stationary, but there’s been a 7% churn in sites in the last 12 months. A total of 3,885 venues have closed, but 3,703 have opened as entrepreneurs and groups take advantage of vacant premises. It is a sign of both the fragility of hospitality and the underlying confidence in the sector among operators and investors.
Turnover has been even faster in late-night channels. The Night Time Economy Market Monitor from NIQ and the Night Time Industries Association reveals nearly one in five bars and nightclubs either entering or exiting the market in the last 12 months. This is a consequence of one of hospitality’s most significant dynamics of recent times: consumers’ desire to go out earlier. According to NIQ’s Trading Index, the early evening period of 5pm to 7pm now generates more sales than the late evening slot of 7pm to 10pm. It is a trend with major implications for pubs, bars and clubs and their suppliers.
New value demands
Earlier visits are just one element among more widely shifting behavioural trends. Ongoing cost of living impacts, and increasing hospitality prices, are redefining value for money in the eyes of the consumer. But while there are some signs of a drawback from the most expensive product categories, there is a simultaneous elevation of the minimum quality consumers find acceptable, as consumers at either end of the spectrum seek experiences that they can justify spending on.
Beyond quality and cost, the demand for an all-round experience continues to rise. This is also contributing to a consumer withdrawal from casual visits, with spend redirected towards more immersive and shared occasions.
Squeezed spending may also be leading consumers to swap eating out for ordering in, as NIQ’s Hospitality Business Tracker shows restaurants have achieved better growth in deliveries and takeaways throughout 2026.
What’s coming next?
Predicting what’s around the corner for hospitality isn’t easy. Leaders remain concerned about the future, with NIQ’s latest Business Confidence Survey showing just 35% of them are optimistic about prospects for their business over the next 12 months. However, there are some grounds for very cautious optimism, as confidence levels jumped sharply after Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced support for pubs and clubs on rates in July. Nearly half (47%) of leaders were optimistic that the change in government would benefit the hospitality and brewing industry.
The big test of that confidence comes on Wednesday 28 October, when the government unveils its Budget. After such a turbulent year, it could be a make-or-break moment for weakened businesses, ahead of what should be the most profitable two months of the year for the sector.
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