5 Key Grocery Trends in 2024

In 2024, the CPG industry as a whole is trying to recover from the challenges of 2023, and grocery is no exception. At the forefront are increased prices due to rampant inflation. In 2023, the average unit price increased between 4-8%.¹ In the first half of 2024, the average unit price only increased 1.7%.² Though this is an improvement, consumers are still shifting their habits to make their dollars go further and cover the basic necessities. Unfortunately, many grocery products just don’t make the cut when consumers need to decide between necessities and nice-to-haves. This means many grocery brands need to reevaluate their pricing and promotion strategies to better align with consumer needs and avoid getting left on the shelf.

With that in mind, here are 5 key grocery trends you need to be aware of in 2024 and beyond:

1. Private Label Growth is Slowing

For years, retailers have been working to improve the quality and market share of their private-label product offerings. Even more importantly, Private Label has been benefitting from consumers seeking lower prices, outpacing National Brands over the past year. For example, according to NIQ data, private label sales reached 19.5% of dollar share, up 3% YoY.³ But, this growth is slowing, giving CPG brands the opportunity to regain some space on the shelf.

This means grocery brands should be putting in the effort to compete with private label growth. Some ways to compete include building brand loyalty, leaning into product innovation, and optimizing your pricing and promotion strategies to compete. Understanding why your consumers may be shifting their behaviors can help you react more effectively.

2. Sustainability Matters to Consumers

One thing is very clear: sustainability matters to the public. Almost all consumers (95%) say they are trying to take some action to live sustainably.⁴ The grocery vertical is no exception with, “free-from” and allergen claims becoming more popular on-shelf. With these intentions made clear, there is ample opportunity for grocery brands to align their product offerings and marketing to match this demand.

Yet, NIQ data shows that 26% of shoppers find it difficult to find sustainable products on the digital shelf.⁴ It’s clear that brands and retailers need to make it easier for shoppers to discover and purchase planet-friendly products. This requires making their sustainability attributes accessible on product pages and clear on packaging. Utilizing Better For Segmentation^™ to more accurately target your consumers and maximize the impact of your product attributes can also help.

3. Value Shopping is Up

Another notable reason for the drop in unit sales is that consumers are shopping at Value retailers. In 2024, Value retailers continue to win over the consumer wallet, fueled by the growth of food departments in the past year. For example, according to NIQ data, Value retailer sales reached 43.1% of dollar share, up 4% YoY.⁵ More importantly, their Food dollar share reached 36.1%, up 5% YoY.⁵ Value retailers are seeing an uptick in consumers seeking out larger quantities at a price that works for them. Unfortunately, this means many premium brands are losing out on sales to less-expensive alternatives.

To stay relevant with these shifting consumers, more premium grocery brands may need to do a better job of conveying the true value of their products and position them as purchases worth the extra expense. This may be due to the quality of the product, its innovative nature, or some other differentiator. The key to marketing your products to this segment is to understand what other factors they care about beyond just product price.

4. Promotions Are Losing Steam

In 2023, consumers were becoming loyal to being disloyal by buying on promotion. Today, promotional sales continue to gain momentum, but the growth rate is slowing. Promotional Dollar Share is up to 28.4%, up 6% YoY, but Unit Share is only up 3% YoY.⁶ This shift means it’s even more important to understand how effective your promotions are and whether they’re actually adding any value. Unfortunately, many companies promote too aggressively and get addicted to the short-term volume growth while not keeping an eye on long-term profitability, resulting in a race to the bottom.

When developing promotional strategies in a recessionary environment, the key is to do it in a way that is sustainable and still profitable. Grocery brands should also consider their omnichannel shoppers when planning out promotions. Customers need a reason to interact with both physical and online purchase paths. If your promotion only targets one channel, you may be missing out on sales in another. But, if all of your online sales occur on promotion, there may be an issue.

5. Omnisales Are on the Rise

Within the US, 86% of CPG dollar sales are represented by “omnichannel shoppers.” But, the omnichannel retail landscape in 2024 is shifting. Sales of CPG products purchased online are growing at almost 5x the rate of in-store sales, with a +10% increase in the past year, vs. +2% in-store.⁷ Even better, the area with the most opportunity for online sales growth going forward is Food. Yet, the online market for Grocery still lags behind other categories.

Growing a grocery brand and increasing sales in an omnichannel world requires focus and accurate, actionable data. Tracking retail sales, market trends, and consumer behavior all play a role. Only then can your product offerings align with consumers’ needs and be visible across all channels. These small details can help you optimize your strategies to get the best impact and meet the consumers where they want.

How to Act on Grocery Industry Trends

Just knowing what’s happening in the market isn’t the same as knowing how to turn it into revenue. The key lies in getting accurate and reliable data, paired with guidance on what the data means and how to use it. Acting on sub-par data usually leads to sub-par success. Unfortunately, for many emerging and growth brands, the idea of spending their budget on data and insights can seem like more trouble than it’s worth. This means they can never act on complete data and get the most out of their products.

The true value of high-quality data and insights can be seen in your ability to identify emerging issues and trends and act on them. For example, nearly 50% of all promotional sales are sales that would have occurred regardless of the promotion. Without data showing you this gap, you’d be leaving money on the table with every promotion. You need to use data as the foundation for your planning and act intelligently to align your brand with the markets without sacrificing quality, brand, or market share.