NIQ Retail Spend Barometer
South Africa
Growth driven by FMCG with T&D goods recovering after flat growth in previous quarters
- ZA consumers spent ZAR 214 billion on FMCG and Tech and Durable (T&D) goods in Q3, 2024 growing by +4.1% YOY.
- 85% of shopper spend in ZA coming through FMCG, amounting to ZAR 183 billion, growing at +4.5% vs PY.
- T&D valued at ZAR 31 billion experiencing growth in performance compared with Q3 2023, growing at +2.1%.
- Considering Stats SA are reporting CPI at 3.8% for September 2024, these growths are not unexpected, but we are not seeing any organic growth.
FMCG Sector
Growth slowdown: Value growth dropped from +6.5% in Q3 2023 to +4.5% in Q3 2024.
Inflation: Annual inflation fell to 3.8% in September 2024, the lowest since March 2021.
Main contributor: Declining transport costs, primarily due to falling fuel prices. Whilst the cost of fuel has dropped back in the last few months it remains high.
Category performance:
Strong performers:
- Tobacco declining slower vs Q3 2023, while Frozen Food growing faster.
- Frozen Food: +7.4% & Fresh Foods: +9.1% growth categories see the highest growth
- With a reduction in loadshedding, consumers are gradually increasing their spending on perishable goods, and this could continue as there appears to be no likelihood of a permanent return of loadshedding, certainly through the summer months, and a focus on essentials. The price of electricity could also be impacting this, electricity prices have increase twice as much (408%) as Consumer prices (196%) since 2010 (Codera) and this could also mean that homes, and many
Tech & Durables Market:
Overall recovery: +2.1% growth in Q3 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
Home Appliances:
- Strong growth (+9.9%) driven by innovation and higher-priced products.
- Key products: Washing machines, dryers, refrigerators, air fryers, and other small appliances.
- Online shopping and competitive pricing boosted sales.
Technical Consumer Goods:
- Slower decline of -0.3%, compared to -4.4% in Q3 2023.
- Supply chain disruptions and economic uncertainty continued to affect tech product availability and prices.
- Products like routers, desk computing, and soundbars saw growth, while wearables, headphones, and smartphones declined.
Consumers more cautious with tech spending, prioritizing esse
“Consumers remain cautious and are continuing to focus on the essentials. I am looking forward to seeing the impact of discounts of Black Friday, Christmas shopping and Back to School purchasing behaviour.”
Nikki Quinn, Retail Lead for sub–Saharan Africa at NIQ and GfK