NIQ Retail Spend Barometer
South Africa
Growth driven by FMCG with T&D goods recovering after flat growth in previous quarters
- ZA consumers spent ZAR 214 billion on FMCG and Tech and Durable (T&D) goods in Q3, 2024 growing by +4.1% YOY.
- 85% of shopper spend in ZA coming through FMCG, amounting to ZAR 183 billion, growing at +4.5% vs PY.
- T&D valued at ZAR 31 billion experiencing growth in performance compared with Q3 2023, growing at +2.1%.
- Considering Stats SA are reporting CPI at 3.8% for September 2024, these growths are not unexpected, but we are not seeing any organic growth.
FMCG Sector
Growth slowdown: Value growth dropped from +6.5% in Q3 2023 to +4.5% in Q3 2024.
Inflation: Annual inflation fell to 3.8% in September 2024, the lowest since March 2021.
Main contributor: Declining transport costs, primarily due to falling fuel prices. Whilst the cost of fuel has dropped back in the last few months it remains high.
Category performance:
- Tobacco declining slower vs Q3 2023, while Frozen Food growing faster.
- Frozen Food: +7.4% & Fresh Foods: +9.1% growth categories see the highest growth
- With a reduction in loadshedding, consumers are gradually increasing their spending on perishable goods, and this could continue as there appears to be no likelihood of a permanent return of loadshedding, certainly through the summer months, and a focus on essentials. The price of electricity could also be impacting this, electricity prices have increase twice as much (408%) as Consumer prices (196%) since 2010 (Codera) and this could also mean that homes, and many
Tech & Durables Market
Overall recovery: +2.1% growth in Q3 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
Home Appliances:
- Strong growth (+9.9%) driven by innovation and higher-priced products.
- Key products: Washing machines, dryers, refrigerators, air fryers, and other small appliances.
- Online shopping and competitive pricing boosted sales.
Technical Consumer Goods:
- Slower decline of -0.3%, compared to -4.4% in Q3 2023.
- Supply chain disruptions and economic uncertainty continued to affect tech product availability and prices.
- Products like routers, desk computing, and soundbars saw growth, while wearables, headphones, and smartphones declined.
- Consumers more cautious with tech spending, prioritizing essentials.
“Consumers remain cautious and are continuing to focus on the essentials. I am looking forward to seeing the impact of discounts of Black Friday, Christmas shopping and Back to School purchasing behaviour.“
Nikki Quinn, Retail Lead for sub–Saharan Africa at NIQ and GfK