Confidence drops three points and still bumping along at near-historic lows    

GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence decreased three points in January to -45. Four measures were down, and one was up, in comparison to the December 16th announcement.

Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director, GfK says:

“After a short-lived and weak rally in Q4 last year, UK consumer confidence has slipped to -45 in January. Consumers have a New Year hangover – but it’s of the economic kind – with high levels of pessimism over the state of the wider economy. And unlike a conventional hangover, this one won’t vanish quickly. The only glimmer of hope in the results is a slight uptick in the outlook for our personal financial situation, but this is of little comfort because it is still 25 points lower than this time last year. This month’s six-point decline in the major purchase index does not augur well because consumer spending is a driving force of our economy and future growth. With inflation continuing to swallow up pay rises, and the prospect of some shocking energy bills landing soon, the forecast for consumer confidence this year is not looking good. One thing we can be sure of is that 2023 promises to be a bumpy ride.”

UK Consumer Confidence Measures – January 2023

The Overall Index Score decreased three points in January to -45. Four measures were down, and one was up, in comparison to the December 16th announcement.

Personal Financial Situation

The index measuring changes in personal finances over the last 12 months decreased three points to -31; this is 25 points worse than January 2022.  

The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months increased to -27; but this is still 25 points lower than this time last year.

General Economic Situation

The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is down five points at -71; this is 24 points lower than in January 2022.   

Expectations for the general economic situation over the coming 12 months are down by one point to -54; this is 22 points lower than January 2022.

Major Purchase Index

The Major Purchase Index is down six points to -40; this is 30 points lower than this month last year.

Savings Index

The Savings Index is down six points this month at +14; this is one point lower than this time last year..

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About the survey

• The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK.
• This month’s survey was conducted among a sample of 2,000 individuals aged 16+.
• Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
• Interviewing was conducted between January 3rd and January 12th 2023.
• The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
• The Overall Index Score is calculated using underlying data that runs to two decimal points.
• Press release dates for the first half of 2023 are: February 24th; March 24th; April 21st; May 19th and June 23rd.
• Any published material requires a reference to GfK e.g. ‘Research carried out by GfK’.
• This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 2006.
• The table below provides an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:

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